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2020 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2020 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 June 2021 June 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 0.4 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 57 57 44 46 35 42
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 June 2021 June 2022 2025
<-4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.10.1
-1.5 to -1.1% 1.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.70.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.6 1.5 1.1 2.3 1.10.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 13.9 5.0 3.4 6.5 3.41.8
0.0 to 0.4% 37.4 13.4 9.8 16.4 10.25.6
0.5 to 0.9% 30.9 25.9 18.8 23.6 19.011.9
1.0 to 1.4% 8.5 28.2 28.5 25.2 30.321.4
1.5 to 1.9% 2.9 14.0 22.4 14.2 19.229.9
2.0 to 2.4% 0.8 7.0 9.9 7.3 9.716.3
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 3.0 3.4 2.3 3.86.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.8 1.53.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.71.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.30.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 June 2021 June 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.5
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 42 42 34 36 29 32
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 June 2021 June 2022 2025
<-4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.30.2
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.30.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.00.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 5.8 4.5 3.1 6.3 3.31.3
0.0 to 0.4% 19.7 16.3 11.7 19.5 12.66.6
0.5 to 0.9% 43.9 33.3 26.4 33.3 26.514.9
1.0 to 1.4% 21.1 27.6 32.4 24.8 28.825.5
1.5 to 1.9% 6.1 11.6 17.0 9.6 18.328.0
2.0 to 2.4% 1.4 3.4 5.3 3.3 5.712.9
2.5 to 2.9% 0.2 0.9 1.7 0.7 1.95.6
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.82.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.51.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 2021 Q1 2022 Q1 2025
Mean point estimate -8.3 5.7 2.4 -0.9 3.3 1.4
Standard deviation 1.4 1.4 0.9 2.5 2.3 0.3
Number of replies 58 58 44 47 38 40
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 2021 Q1 2022 Q1 2025
<-15.0% 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
-15.0 to -13.1% 3.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.00.0
-13.0 to -11.1% 9.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 0.00.0
-11.0 to -9.1% 21.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 0.00.0
-9.0 to -7.1% 34.6 0.1 0.0 3.3 0.00.0
-7.0 to -5.1% 20.7 0.1 0.0 7.3 0.00.0
-5.0 to -3.1% 6.8 0.1 0.1 8.5 0.10.1
-3.0 to -1.1% 2.0 0.1 0.1 15.9 1.10.7
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.5 0.1 0.4 14.1 1.51.8
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.1 0.9 9.1 1.72.8
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.1 3.07.2
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 0.6 6.1 7.8 5.714.4
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 1.0 13.1 5.5 8.624.7
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 1.6 17.6 4.5 11.624.5
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 3.3 21.6 2.8 13.112.8
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 4.7 16.4 2.3 13.56.5
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 9.5 11.4 2.0 15.12.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 16.4 4.5 1.8 9.91.0
4.0 to 5.9% 0.0 29.3 2.7 2.6 5.30.3
6.0 to 7.9% 0.0 21.5 1.8 2.1 2.90.1
8.0 to 9.9% 0.0 8.1 0.8 0.5 1.50.0
>10.0% 0.0 2.9 0.2 0.2 5.40.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2020 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2020 2021 2022 May 2021 May 2022 2025
Mean point estimate 9.1 9.3 8.5 9.5 8.8 7.7
Standard deviation 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.5
Number of replies 48 48 38 36 31 35
Probability distributions 2020 2021 2022 May 2021 May 2022 2025
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.20.9
5.5 to 5.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.61.7
6.0 to 6.4% 0.2 0.7 1.8 0.8 2.04.4
6.5 to 6.9% 0.8 1.2 4.5 1.5 4.010.9
7.0 to 7.4% 3.2 2.9 9.6 2.5 10.517.4
7.5 to 7.9% 10.4 5.8 11.9 4.5 10.020.9
8.0 to 8.4% 15.1 12.5 14.0 12.1 12.518.5
8.5 to 8.9% 17.4 17.6 14.6 12.0 16.710.8
9.0 to 9.4% 15.1 16.4 16.0 17.2 13.66.7
9.5 to 9.9% 13.3 15.9 11.8 14.5 11.33.9
10.0 to 10.4% 10.7 10.9 7.3 11.0 8.91.9
10.5 to 10.9% 5.7 6.4 4.6 7.2 5.21.1
11.0 to 11.4% 3.5 4.1 1.7 5.6 2.30.4
11.5 to 11.9% 1.8 2.4 0.8 3.8 1.00.2
12.0 to 12.4% 1.3 1.5 0.3 3.1 0.50.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 1.8 0.40.0
13.0 to 13.4% 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.20.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 0.10.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0