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2004 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2004 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2004 2005 Mar. 2005 Mar. 2006 2008
Mean point estimate 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 63 62 59 53 47
Probability distributions 2004 2005 Mar. 2005 Mar. 2006 2008
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.4
0.0-0.4% 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.21.7
0.5-0.9% 2.2 3.8 4.6 4.24.8
1.0-1.4% 12.1 16.7 20.0 16.714.5
1.5-1.9% 56.0 47.1 46.4 40.537.6
2.0-2.4% 25.2 23.9 21.7 27.427.6
2.5-2.9% 3.6 5.8 5.3 7.59.5
3.0-3.4% 0.6 1.3 1.1 2.03.1
>3.5% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.40.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2004 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2004 2005 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2008
Mean point estimate 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 64 63 59 57 47
Probability distributions 2004 2005 2004 Q4 2005 Q4 2008
<0.0% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.30.5
0.0-0.4% 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.81.0
0.5-0.9% 5.9 3.4 4.3 3.63.4
1.0-1.4% 29.8 10.9 19.4 9.77.7
1.5-1.9% 43.7 27.3 39.1 22.718.0
2.0-2.4% 15.1 39.1 24.4 36.233.1
2.5-2.9% 2.7 12.4 8.4 17.923.3
3.0-3.4% 0.7 4.2 2.5 6.49.0
3.5-3.9% 0.2 1.1 0.5 1.83.3
>4.0% 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.60.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2004 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2004 2005 Feb. 2005 Feb. 2006 2008
Mean point estimate 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.3 7.5
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 62 61 52 48 42
Probability distributions 2004 2005 Feb. 2005 Feb. 2006 2008
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.4
5.5-5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.6
6.0-6.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.24.0
6.5-6.9% 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.711.8
7.0-7.4% 0.5 1.7 0.8 3.120.5
7.5-7.9% 1.8 5.9 3.8 11.723.8
8.0-8.4% 12.0 29.5 21.8 36.520.5
8.5-8.9% 61.5 44.3 52.4 34.611.3
9.0-9.4% 20.3 13.9 17.6 10.23.6
9.5-9.9% 2.7 3.1 2.8 2.11.5
10.0-10.4% 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.90.7
10.5-10.9% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.00.1
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0