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2001 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2001 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2001 2002 2003 Sep. 2002 Sep. 2003 2006
Mean point estimate 2.6 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 54 54 50 51 44 40
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2003 Sep. 2002 Sep. 2003 2006
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.40.3
0.0-0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.51.1
0.5-0.9% 0.2 2.7 3.0 6.0 4.23.6
1.0-1.4% 1.3 19.1 16.5 24.9 16.817.3
1.5-1.9% 3.4 48.5 43.7 40.7 38.438.7
2.0-2.4% 16.6 23.7 27.2 18.5 27.625.9
2.5-2.9% 75.5 4.7 6.4 7.0 8.28.5
3.0-3.4% 2.8 1.0 1.8 1.4 2.53.4
>3.4% 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.41.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2001 2002 2003 2002 Q2 2003 Q2 2006
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.5 2.5 1.2 2.5 2.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 54 54 47 48 43 38
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2003 2002 Q2 2003 Q2 2006
<0.0% 0.0 1.4 0.3 3.5 0.30.5
0.0-0.4% 0.1 2.9 0.3 9.7 0.70.5
0.5-0.9% 2.8 11.4 1.5 22.5 2.31.4
1.0-1.4% 36.2 25.0 5.3 28.1 4.73.5
1.5-1.9% 52.9 44.2 11.7 21.1 15.510.2
2.0-2.4% 6.5 11.4 32.7 10.4 33.629.2
2.5-2.9% 1.2 2.6 36.8 4.5 29.435.7
3.0-3.4% 0.2 0.6 8.7 0.2 9.812.6
3.5-3.9% 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.0 2.64.1
>3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.0 1.12.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2001 2002 2003 Aug. 2002 Aug. 2003 2006
Mean point estimate 8.4 8.6 8.2 8.6 8.2 7.2
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9
Number of replies 52 52 44 41 37 35
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2003 Aug. 2002 Aug. 2003 2006
<6.5% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.911.0
6.5-6.9% 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.4 3.919.1
7.0-7.4% 0.2 1.5 5.8 1.9 7.319.5
7.5-7.9% 2.9 6.4 21.4 7.5 18.620.2
8.0-8.4% 59.6 28.4 32.0 28.3 31.811.9
8.5-8.9% 32.4 37.9 22.7 34.7 23.88.3
9.0-9.4% 3.9 20.5 10.2 21.2 10.56.4
9.5-9.9% 0.7 3.6 4.1 5.4 2.82.0
10.0-10.4% 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.30.8
10.5-10.9% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.00.3
11.0-11.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.00.2
11.5-11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.2
>11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.00.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0