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Níl an t-ábhar seo ar fáil i nGaeilge.

Mara Pirovano

Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability

Division

Macroprudential Policy

Current Position

Team Lead - Financial Stability

Fields of interest

Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics

Email

Mara.Pirovano@ecb.europa.eu

Education
2008-2014

PhD in Economics, Catholic University Of Leuven, Belgium

2007-2008

MA in Applied Economics, University of Antwerp, Belgium

2004-2007

BA in Economic and Social Sciences , Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Italy

Professional experience
2021-2021

Senior Economist - Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy

2017-2021

Senior Financial Stability Expert - Macroprudential Policy Division, Directorate General Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy, European Central Bank

2013-2017

Financial Stability Expert - Macroprudential Surveillance Division, Directorate Macroprudential Policy Financial Stability, National Bank of Belgium

14 July 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3075
Details
Abstract
This paper proposes a novel yet intuitive method for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle in the euro area, including the positive neutral CCyB rate. The paper implements the Risk-to-Buffer framework by Couaillier and Scalone (2024) in both a DSGE and macro time series setting and proposes a calibration of the PN CCyB aimed to reduce the macroeconomic amplification of shocks occurring in an environment where risks are neither subdued nor elevated. The suggested positive neutral CCyB rates for the euro area are consistent across methodologies and robust to alternative specifications, ranging between 1% and 1.5%. The results also highlight the role of different shocks and sources of cyclical systemic risk for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle. The flexibility of the method regarding the modeling tools, the selection of specific levels of risks as well as the choice of state variables and of exogenous shocks make it particularly suitable to be tailored to national specificities and policymakers’ preferences.
JEL Code
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
11 June 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3061
Details
Abstract
We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets. We propose a simple yet intuitive framework to calibrate the CCyB through the cycle, including the socalled "positive neutral" rate. The model suggests a target positive neutral rate for the euro area ranging from 1.1% to 1.8%. Furthermore, the calibrated CCyB rates are consistent with the evolution of domestic cyclical systemic risks in the countries considered. The results further show that the adoption of a positive neutral CCyB approach allows for an earlier and more gradual build-up of the buffer, but does not lead to higher CCyB requirements at the peak of the cycle. Importantly, a positive neutral CCyB strategy would have implied that most euro area countries would have had a positive CCyB in place at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
JEL Code
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
29 August 2024
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2979
Details
Abstract
We examine the issue of the appropriate selection of macroprudential instruments according to the vulnerabilities identified and the policymakers’ objectives using a version of the 3D DSGE model following Mendicino et al. (2020) and Hinterschweiger et al. (2021) calibrated for the euro area. We consider a broad set of macroprudential instruments, including broad and sectoral countercyclical capital requirements, LTV and LTI limits and assess their transmission channels as well as their effectiveness in mitigating rising broad and sectoral vulnerabilities. We find that sectoral instruments are most effective to increase bank resilience to sectoral risks, limiting spillover effects. LTI limits are superior to LTV limits in containing the growth of mortgage credit and household indebtedness. Finally, we find that macroprudential policy is better suited than monetary policy to address emerging real estate-related imbalances.
JEL Code
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
20 June 2024
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 24
Details
Abstract
This article explores the benefits of a positive neutral rate for the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the conditions shaping the economic costs of its activation in a general equilibrium framework. The analysis shows that a gradual build-up of the buffer and favourable banking sector conditions (e.g. high profitability) limit these economic costs. Furthermore, a positive neutral CCyB rate ensures banking sector resilience in all phases of the financial cycle and improves macroprudential authorities’ ability to provide relief to the banking sector in the event of (potentially large) shocks, including those unrelated to the materialisation of domestic credit imbalances.
JEL Code
C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
26 April 2023
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 21
Details
Abstract
This article discusses the possible implementation of a positive neutral rate for the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) as a means of increasing macroprudential policy space in the European banking union. Drawing on experience from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it explains why a positive neutral rate is needed to enhance the effectiveness of the current macroprudential framework. It also describes recent progress on the application of this tool around the globe and concludes with some remarks on the calibration and potential future application of the tool in the banking union.
JEL Code
Add JEL codes separated by semi-colon. : General Economics and Teaching
15 March 2023
OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 310
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Abstract
Macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis have been central to safeguarding financial stability. Despite the increasing use of multiple policy instruments, a detailed understanding of interactions among them is still needed to assess how instrument combinations can enhance the effectiveness of macroprudential action. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for informing the choice of combinations of macroprudential instruments, looking at the role of micro and macroeconomic transmission channels, interactions across policy objectives, the importance of country specificities and linkages with other macroeconomic or supervisory policies. It also reviews considerations related to circumvention, leakages, time of activation and communication of policies, all of which may affect the desirability of different combinations of macroprudential instruments. The paper also discusses a possible operational use of combinations of macroprudential instruments to address selected risks and provides a rich analysis of instrument interactions within the categories of borrower-based and, respectively, capital-based measures. The paper concludes that the combinations of capital and borrower-based instruments ensures a comprehensive coverage of different systemic risks and entail important synergies.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
22 September 2021
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 87.3
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Abstract
Many countries have implemented macroprudential policies. The aims are twofold: first, to render the financial system more resilient to shocks and, second, to prevent booms and busts in the financial system in response to economic cycles. This article provides theoretical and empirical evidence which shows the positive impact that these measures have on financial stability, as well as the gains in economic growth derived from a stronger financial system.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Network
Research Task Force (RTF)
28 May 2021
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2559
Details
Abstract
Since the global financial crises, many countries have implemented macroprudential policies with the aim to render the financial system more resilient to shocks and limit the procyclicality of the financial system. We present theoretical and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy, on both, financial stability and economic growth focussing on capital measures and borrower-based measures.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
Network
Discussion papers
28 May 2021
DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 15
Details
Abstract
Since the global financial crises, many countries have implemented macroprudential policies with the aim to render the financial system more resilient to shocks and limit the procyclicality of the financial system. We present theoretical and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy, on both, financial stability and economic growth focussing on capital measures and borrower-based measures.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
26 May 2020
FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLE
Financial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020
Details
Abstract
It is often maintained that the recent real estate booms in many euro area countries have been accompanied by a loosening in lending standards. However, data for a thorough cross-country assessment of lending standards have been missing. This special feature uses a novel euro area dataset from a dedicated data collection covering significant institutions supervised by ECB Banking Supervision to analyse trends in real estate lending standards and derive implications for financial stability. First, lending standards for residential real estate loans in the euro area, in particular loan-to-income ratios, eased between 2016 and 2018. Given the significant deterioration in the euro area economic outlook since the coronavirus outbreak, this vulnerability seems of particular relevance. Second, lending standards appear to be looser in countries that saw stronger real estate expansions, suggesting that real estate vulnerabilities may have been growing in some euro area countries. Third, lending standards deteriorated less in countries with borrower-based macroprudential policies in place, highlighting the importance of early macroprudential policy action to help prevent the build-up of real estate vulnerabilities.
20 December 2019
STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 32
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Abstract
This paper describes the Macroprudential Database (MPDB) of the European CentralBank (ECB), which is an important component of the ECB’s Statistical DataWarehouse. After explaining the rationale for creating the MPDB, the paper illustrateshow it supports the macroprudential analysis conducted by the European System ofCentral Banks (ESCB), the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the nationalauthorities of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the European Union. Thestructure of the database and a broad overview of available indicators are thenpresented, with a description of the relevant confidentiality issues. Examples illustratehow the MPDB is used for monitoring purposes and econometric modelling. Finally,the paper discusses remaining data gaps and expected future enhancements of thedatabase.
JEL Code
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
16 September 2019
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 8
Details
Abstract
As discussions progress on the potential design of sectoral capital buffers both at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and European levels, this article discusses the advantages and shortcomings of the sectoral application of the countercyclical capital buffer for addressing sectoral systemic risks. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DGSE) model is used to explore and compare the transmission channels of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer (SCCyB), as well as their role in enhancing the resilience of banks and taming the procyclicality of credit. The model-based policy exercise indicates that, if risks are confined to one particular credit sector, a SCCyB could prove more effective than the CCyB in strengthening bank resilience to the target sector and in mitigating sectoral credit imbalances.
JEL Code
C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
27 March 2019
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 7
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Abstract
This article presents the ECB framework for assessing financial stability risks stemming from residential real estate markets and for designing macroprudential policy responses. It reviews recent developments in residential real estate markets and policy initiatives to address risks.
JEL Code
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
2018
Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysis
A guide to early-warning models for real estate-related banking crises
  • Cornacchia, W. and Pirovano, M.
2017
Irving Fisher Committee Bulletin
  • Cornacchia, W., Dierick, F., Point, E. and Pirovano, M.
2016
National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Series
  • Ferrari, S. and Pirovano, M.
2016
National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Series
  • Ferrari, S., Pirovano, M. and Rovira-Kaltwasser, P.
2014
Financial Stability Report - National Bank of Belgium
  • Ferrari, S. and Pirovano, M.
2013
University of Antwerp Working Paper
  • Pirovano, M.
2013
National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Series
  • Pirovano, M.
2012
Economic Systems
  • Pirovano, M.
2011
University of Antwerp Working Paper
  • Pirovano, M. and Van Poeck, A.
2009
University of Antwerp Working Paper
  • Piorvano, M., Vanneste, J. and Van Poeck, A.

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