Níl an t-ábhar seo ar fáil i nGaeilge.
Mara Pirovano
Macro Prud Policy&Financial Stability
- Division
Macroprudential Policy
- Current Position
-
Team Lead - Financial Stability
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2008-2014
PhD in Economics, Catholic University Of Leuven, Belgium
- 2007-2008
MA in Applied Economics, University of Antwerp, Belgium
- 2004-2007
BA in Economic and Social Sciences , Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi, Italy
- Professional experience
- 2021-2021
Senior Economist - Monetary Analysis Division, Directorate General Monetary Policy
- 2017-2021
Senior Financial Stability Expert - Macroprudential Policy Division, Directorate General Financial Stability and Macroprudential Policy, European Central Bank
- 2013-2017
Financial Stability Expert - Macroprudential Surveillance Division, Directorate Macroprudential Policy Financial Stability, National Bank of Belgium
- 14 July 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3075Details
- Abstract
- This paper proposes a novel yet intuitive method for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle in the euro area, including the positive neutral CCyB rate. The paper implements the Risk-to-Buffer framework by Couaillier and Scalone (2024) in both a DSGE and macro time series setting and proposes a calibration of the PN CCyB aimed to reduce the macroeconomic amplification of shocks occurring in an environment where risks are neither subdued nor elevated. The suggested positive neutral CCyB rates for the euro area are consistent across methodologies and robust to alternative specifications, ranging between 1% and 1.5%. The results also highlight the role of different shocks and sources of cyclical systemic risk for the calibration of the CCyB through the cycle. The flexibility of the method regarding the modeling tools, the selection of specific levels of risks as well as the choice of state variables and of exogenous shocks make it particularly suitable to be tailored to national specificities and policymakers’ preferences.
- JEL Code
- C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
- 11 June 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3061Details
- Abstract
- We study the impact of cyclical systemic risks on banks’ profitability in the euro area within a panel quantile regression model, with the ultimate goal to inform the calibration of the Countercyclical Capital buffer (CCyB). Compared to previous studies, we augment our model to control for unobserved bank-specific characteristics and year-fixed effects and find a lower degree of heterogeneity in the estimated effects across the conditional distribution of bank returns on assets. We propose a simple yet intuitive framework to calibrate the CCyB through the cycle, including the socalled "positive neutral" rate. The model suggests a target positive neutral rate for the euro area ranging from 1.1% to 1.8%. Furthermore, the calibrated CCyB rates are consistent with the evolution of domestic cyclical systemic risks in the countries considered. The results further show that the adoption of a positive neutral CCyB approach allows for an earlier and more gradual build-up of the buffer, but does not lead to higher CCyB requirements at the peak of the cycle. Importantly, a positive neutral CCyB strategy would have implied that most euro area countries would have had a positive CCyB in place at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 29 August 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2979Details
- Abstract
- We examine the issue of the appropriate selection of macroprudential instruments according to the vulnerabilities identified and the policymakers’ objectives using a version of the 3D DSGE model following Mendicino et al. (2020) and Hinterschweiger et al. (2021) calibrated for the euro area. We consider a broad set of macroprudential instruments, including broad and sectoral countercyclical capital requirements, LTV and LTI limits and assess their transmission channels as well as their effectiveness in mitigating rising broad and sectoral vulnerabilities. We find that sectoral instruments are most effective to increase bank resilience to sectoral risks, limiting spillover effects. LTI limits are superior to LTV limits in containing the growth of mortgage credit and household indebtedness. Finally, we find that macroprudential policy is better suited than monetary policy to address emerging real estate-related imbalances.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 20 June 2024
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 24Details
- Abstract
- This article explores the benefits of a positive neutral rate for the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the conditions shaping the economic costs of its activation in a general equilibrium framework. The analysis shows that a gradual build-up of the buffer and favourable banking sector conditions (e.g. high profitability) limit these economic costs. Furthermore, a positive neutral CCyB rate ensures banking sector resilience in all phases of the financial cycle and improves macroprudential authorities’ ability to provide relief to the banking sector in the event of (potentially large) shocks, including those unrelated to the materialisation of domestic credit imbalances.
- JEL Code
- C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 26 April 2023
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 21Details
- Abstract
- This article discusses the possible implementation of a positive neutral rate for the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) as a means of increasing macroprudential policy space in the European banking union. Drawing on experience from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, it explains why a positive neutral rate is needed to enhance the effectiveness of the current macroprudential framework. It also describes recent progress on the application of this tool around the globe and concludes with some remarks on the calibration and potential future application of the tool in the banking union.
- JEL Code
- Add JEL codes separated by semi-colon. : General Economics and Teaching
- 15 March 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 310Details
- Abstract
- Macroprudential policies since the global financial crisis have been central to safeguarding financial stability. Despite the increasing use of multiple policy instruments, a detailed understanding of interactions among them is still needed to assess how instrument combinations can enhance the effectiveness of macroprudential action. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for informing the choice of combinations of macroprudential instruments, looking at the role of micro and macroeconomic transmission channels, interactions across policy objectives, the importance of country specificities and linkages with other macroeconomic or supervisory policies. It also reviews considerations related to circumvention, leakages, time of activation and communication of policies, all of which may affect the desirability of different combinations of macroprudential instruments. The paper also discusses a possible operational use of combinations of macroprudential instruments to address selected risks and provides a rich analysis of instrument interactions within the categories of borrower-based and, respectively, capital-based measures. The paper concludes that the combinations of capital and borrower-based instruments ensures a comprehensive coverage of different systemic risks and entail important synergies.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 22 September 2021
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 87.3Details
- Abstract
- Many countries have implemented macroprudential policies. The aims are twofold: first, to render the financial system more resilient to shocks and, second, to prevent booms and busts in the financial system in response to economic cycles. This article provides theoretical and empirical evidence which shows the positive impact that these measures have on financial stability, as well as the gains in economic growth derived from a stronger financial system.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- Network
- Research Task Force (RTF)
- 28 May 2021
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2559Details
- Abstract
- Since the global financial crises, many countries have implemented macroprudential policies with the aim to render the financial system more resilient to shocks and limit the procyclicality of the financial system. We present theoretical and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy, on both, financial stability and economic growth focussing on capital measures and borrower-based measures.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- Network
- Discussion papers
- 28 May 2021
- DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES - No. 15Details
- Abstract
- Since the global financial crises, many countries have implemented macroprudential policies with the aim to render the financial system more resilient to shocks and limit the procyclicality of the financial system. We present theoretical and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of macroprudential policy, on both, financial stability and economic growth focussing on capital measures and borrower-based measures.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 26 May 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - ARTICLEFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- It is often maintained that the recent real estate booms in many euro area countries have been accompanied by a loosening in lending standards. However, data for a thorough cross-country assessment of lending standards have been missing. This special feature uses a novel euro area dataset from a dedicated data collection covering significant institutions supervised by ECB Banking Supervision to analyse trends in real estate lending standards and derive implications for financial stability. First, lending standards for residential real estate loans in the euro area, in particular loan-to-income ratios, eased between 2016 and 2018. Given the significant deterioration in the euro area economic outlook since the coronavirus outbreak, this vulnerability seems of particular relevance. Second, lending standards appear to be looser in countries that saw stronger real estate expansions, suggesting that real estate vulnerabilities may have been growing in some euro area countries. Third, lending standards deteriorated less in countries with borrower-based macroprudential policies in place, highlighting the importance of early macroprudential policy action to help prevent the build-up of real estate vulnerabilities.
- 20 December 2019
- STATISTICS PAPER SERIES - No. 32Details
- Abstract
- This paper describes the Macroprudential Database (MPDB) of the European CentralBank (ECB), which is an important component of the ECB’s Statistical DataWarehouse. After explaining the rationale for creating the MPDB, the paper illustrateshow it supports the macroprudential analysis conducted by the European System ofCentral Banks (ESCB), the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) and the nationalauthorities of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the European Union. Thestructure of the database and a broad overview of available indicators are thenpresented, with a description of the relevant confidentiality issues. Examples illustratehow the MPDB is used for monitoring purposes and econometric modelling. Finally,the paper discusses remaining data gaps and expected future enhancements of thedatabase.
- JEL Code
- C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
- 16 September 2019
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 8Details
- Abstract
- As discussions progress on the potential design of sectoral capital buffers both at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) and European levels, this article discusses the advantages and shortcomings of the sectoral application of the countercyclical capital buffer for addressing sectoral systemic risks. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DGSE) model is used to explore and compare the transmission channels of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) and the sectoral countercyclical capital buffer (SCCyB), as well as their role in enhancing the resilience of banks and taming the procyclicality of credit. The model-based policy exercise indicates that, if risks are confined to one particular credit sector, a SCCyB could prove more effective than the CCyB in strengthening bank resilience to the target sector and in mitigating sectoral credit imbalances.
- JEL Code
- C68 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Mathematical Methods, Programming Models, Mathematical and Simulation Modeling→Computable General Equilibrium Models
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 27 March 2019
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 7Details
- Abstract
- This article presents the ECB framework for assessing financial stability risks stemming from residential real estate markets and for designing macroprudential policy responses. It reviews recent developments in residential real estate markets and policy initiatives to address risks.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
- 2018
- Recent trends in the real estate market and its analysisA guide to early-warning models for real estate-related banking crises
- 2017
- Irving Fisher Committee Bulletin
- 2016
- National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Series
- 2016
- National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Series
- 2014
- Financial Stability Report - National Bank of Belgium
- 2013
- University of Antwerp Working Paper
- 2013
- National Bank of Belgium Working Paper Series
- 2012
- Economic Systems
- 2011
- University of Antwerp Working Paper
- 2009
- University of Antwerp Working Paper