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RESEÑA
9 de octubre de 2025
Reseña de la reunión de política monetaria de septiembre
El Consejo de Gobierno acordó mantener los tipos de interés sin cambios. Los últimos datos y las nuevas proyecciones de los expertos confirmaban que las perspectivas de inflación se mantenían en general inalteradas. No obstante, el entorno seguía siendo más incierto de lo habitual.
Lee la reseña
ENTREVISTA
9 de octubre de 2025
Nuestra moneda, siempre disponible
El euro digital permitirá efectuar pagos digitales en cualquier lugar de Europa, señala Piero Cipollone, miembro del Comité Ejecutivo. Beneficiará a consumidores, comerciantes y bancos al reducir costes, simplificar los pagos y complementar al efectivo con su equivalente digital.
Entrevista con Delfi
ACTO
23 de septiembre de 2025
Un hito en la integración europea
Bulgaria adoptará el euro el 1 de enero de 2026, un paso importante hacia una mayor integración europea. Descubre qué significa para la economía búlgara y cómo determinará el futuro del país dentro de la zona del euro.
Más información sobre Bulgaria y el euro- 9 October 2025
- MONETARY POLICY ACCOUNTRelated
- 11 September 2025
- MONETARY POLICY DECISIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 9 October 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 8 October 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENTEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Annexes
- 8 October 2025
- WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
- 7 October 2025
- EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
- 7 October 2025
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
- 7 October 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at Business France event 'Business en Européens' in Paris, France
- 6 October 2025
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 6 October 2025
- 6 October 2025
- Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the ECB Conference on Monetary Policy 2025: bridging science and practice
- 3 October 2025
- Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the farewell symposium in honour of Klaas Knot
- 3 October 2025
- Keynote speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the farewell symposium for DNB President Klaas Knot, “Europe in the world - Challenges and Opportunities”
- 9 October 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Žanete Hāka-Rikarde and Priit Pokk on 29 September 2025
- 25 September 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, conducted by Francesco Ninfole on 24 September 2025Related
- 26 September 2025
- 26 September 2025
- 17 September 2025
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Anja Ettel and Holger Zschäpitz
- 3 September 2025
- Contribution by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, to IMF Finance & Development Magazine
- 28 August 2025
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Francesco Canepa and Balazs Koranyi on 28 August 2025
- 2 October 2025
- Uncertainty is a key force shaping economic conditions. This post shows that heightened uncertainty about economic policy in the United States significantly affects firm lending in the euro area. This weighs on investment and reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
- 26 September 2025
- Good statistics are accurate, timely, consistent and comparable. Only then can they be the unbiased reality check needed for responsible decision-making. The ECB blog looks back at past mistakes and what Europe has learned from them.Details
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 25 September 2025
- While overall inflation has normalised and currently lies at the ECB’s 2% medium-term target, food inflation is higher. To put a meal on the table, consumers pay roughly a third more than before the pandemic. This ECB Blog looks at the causes and consequences for monetary policy.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 22 September 2025
- A small group of banks is crucial for the smooth functioning of euro area sovereign bond markets. They buy bonds from issuing governments and sell them on to final holders. To play this role, they need sufficient resources, especially capital. This blog examines potential signs of strain in the intermediation process.Details
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 16 September 2025
- A field experiment indicates that direct communication with ECB visitors better anchors their inflation expectations. Visitors with little knowledge of monetary policy are particularly likely to align their expectations with the ECB’s inflation target after speaking to central bankers.Details
- JEL Code
- E69 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Other
- 9 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3136Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents a comprehensive characterization of “fiscal drag”—the increase in tax revenue that occurs when nominal tax bases grow but nominal parameters of progressive tax legislation are not updated accordingly—across 21 European countries using a microsimulationapproach. First, we estimate tax-to-base elasticities, showing that the progressivity built in each country’s personal income tax system induces elasticities around 1.7–2 for many countries, indicating a potential for large fiscal drag effects. We unpack these elasticities to show stark heterogeneity in their underlying mechanisms (tax brackets or tax deductions and credits), across income sources (labor, capital, self-employment, public benefits), and across the individual income distribution. Second, we extend the analysis beyond these elasticities to study fiscal drag in practice between 2019 and 2023, incorporating observed income growth and legislative changes. We quantify the actual impact of fiscal drag and the extent to which government policies have offset it, either through indexation or other reforms. Our results provide new insights into the fiscal and distributional effects of fiscal drag in Europe, as well as useful statistics for modeling public finances.
- JEL Code
- D31 : Microeconomics→Distribution→Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions
H24 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
- 9 October 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 376Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the relationship between capital requirements, capital ratios and bank competitiveness – measured as profit efficiency. Using data envelopment analysis techniques, profit efficiency scores were estimated for a sample of listed significant institutions directly supervised by the European Central Bank. In calculating the scores, use was made of rich supervisory data on bank-specific characteristics and capital requirements, in addition to macroeconomic variables. The findings revealed that capital requirements do not have a statistically significant effect on profit efficiency. The insignificant relationship also held true when capital requirements were broken down into microprudential and macroprudential requirements. For capital ratios, the relationship with profit efficiency was linearly statistically insignificant, but did display a statistically significant non-linear relationship that followed an inverted U-shape: profit efficiency rose with capital up to a threshold (estimated at a common equity tier 1 ratio of around 18%), after which further increases curbed profit efficiency. These findings were robust to a wide battery of robustness checks, including an extension of the sample to unlisted banks and the use of different efficiency measures and of various methods to control for confounding factors. These results underscore the need for policymakers to ensure that banks remain resilient, maintain strong capital ratios and manage risk well. In addition, they point to the intricate link between bank capital, regulation and competitiveness, contributing to the ongoing debate about the European banking sector’s ability to support economic growth and innovation.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 9 October 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 135Details
- Abstract
- We present novel empirical evidence on lending practices across all euro area countries, using AnaCredit data covering nearly seven million new loans issued to non-financial corporations in 2022-23. We document substantial variation in (a) the prevalence of fixed versus floating-rate loans, (b) rate fixation periods, and (c) reference rates. This variation results in lending rates being exposed to different segments of the risk-free rate yield curve which, in turn, influences their sensitivity to monetary policy changes. We show that loans priced using shorter-term relevant risk-free rates experience more pronounced monetary pass-through. Importantly, this effect is not purely mechanical, as part of the effect is offset by adjustments in the premium, revealing previously less explored heterogeneity in the pass-through to lending rates.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 8 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3135Details
- Abstract
- Climate change poses a significant risk to financial stability by impacting sovereign credit risk. Quantifying the exact impact is difficult as climate risk encompasses different components– transition risk and physical risk – with some of these, as well as the policies to address them, playing out over a long time horizon. In this paper, we use a large panel of 52 developed and developing economies over two decades to empirically investigate the extent to which climate risks influence sovereign yields. The results of a panel regression analysis show that transition risk is associated with higher sovereign yields, with the effect more pronounced for developing economies and for high-emitting countries after the Paris agreement. In contrast, high-temperature anomalies do not appear to be priced-in sovereign borrowing costs. At the same time, countries with high levels of debt tend to record higher sovereign yields as acute physical risk increases. In the medium term, using local projections, we find that sovereign yields respond significantly but also differently to different types of disaster caused by climate change. We also explore the nonlinear effects of weather-related natural disasters on sovereign yields and find a striking contrast in the impact of climate shocks on sovereign borrowing costs according to income level and fiscal space when the shock hits.
- JEL Code
- C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H63 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Debt, Debt Management, Sovereign Debt
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 8 October 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 375Details
- Abstract
- The IMF working paper, “Good Supervision: lessons from the field,” examines the effectiveness of On-site Inspections (OSIs) as a supervisory tool in advanced economies (AEs), drawing insights from 60 Basel Core Principles (BCPs) assessments conducted between 2012 and June 2023. Despite their critical role in ensuring financial stability, OSIs are identified as the second-largest weakness among supervisory techniques in AEs. The study highlights challenges such as limited supervisory resources, infrequent inspections of smaller banks, and an over-reliance on off-site monitoring, which cannot fully substitute the insights gained from in-person supervision. Key deficiencies include gaps in OSI scope, frequency, staffing, and enforcement mechanisms, as well as communication and structural issues. The paper underscores the need for supervisory authorities to balance on-site and off-site methods, enhance staffing and inspection practices, and strengthen enforcement capabilities. These improvements are deemed essential to align supervisory practices with BCP standards and foster a more resilient financial system.
- JEL Code
- G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
- 7 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3134Details
- Abstract
- The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the effects of capital and liquidity on bank stability as well as the existence of a potential complementary or substitute relationship between both dimensions to explain bank stability. We use a sample of 16,061 banks from 27 countries during the period 2013-2023. Our results show that both capital and liquidity increase bank stability. However, the joint interactive effect presents a negative coefficient indicating the existence of a potential substitution effect between both variables. We also provide evidence on market power acting as a potential mechanism explaining the baseline relationships. Furthermore, the results seem to be modulated by specific bank- and country-level factors.
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
K00 : Law and Economics→General→General
- 7 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3133Details
- Abstract
- This paper contributes to the literature on the price Phillips curve by exploiting subnational regional data from 11 euro area countries. Beyond controlling for aggregate fluctuations common across euro area regions, our approach accounts for country-specific dynamics, including national inflation expectations, thereby addressing key limitations in previous studies. Our results suggest that the Phillips curve in the euro area is relatively flat, but statistically significant. Furthermore, we provide novel evidence on potential nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve and highlight the critical role of properly accounting for country-specific factors such as inflation expectations. These findings provide new insights for the conduct of monetary policy and underscore the value of regional data in euro area macroeconomic analysis.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
- 6 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3132Details
- Abstract
- Global temperatures are rising at an alarming pace and public awareness of climate change is increasing, yet little is known about how these developments affect consumer expectations. We address this gap by conducting a series of experiments within a large-scale, population-representative survey of euro area consumers. We randomly assign consumers to hypothetical global temperature change scenarios, after which we elicit their expectations for inflation and key macroeconomic indicators under these conditions. We find that a 0.5°C rise in global temperatures leads to a 0.65 percentage point increase in five-year-ahead inflation expectations, with effects particularly pronounced among consumers with greater awareness of climate change. Additionally, respondents expect adverse impacts of global warming on economic growth, employment, public debt, tax burdens, and their well-being. Despite these pessimistic expectations, many consumers demonstrate limited willingness to pay for mitigating further temperature increases. Instead, they place primary responsibility for climate action on governments. Our findings underscore the interplay between climate change and economic expectations, highlighting the potential implications for monetary and fiscal policy in a warming world.
- JEL Code
- D12 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics→Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
H31 : Public Economics→Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents→Household
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 6 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3131Details
- Abstract
- We explore whether investment funds transmit spillovers from local shocks to financial markets in other economies. As a laboratory we consider shocks to financialmarket beliefs about the probability of a rare, euro-related disaster and their spillovers to Asian sovereign debt markets. Given their geographic distance from and relatively limited macroeconomic exposure to the euro area, these markets are an ideal testing ground a priori stacking the deck against finding evidence for investment funds transmitting spillovers from euro disaster risk shocks. Analyzing proprietary security-level holdings data over the period from 2014 to 2023, we find that investment funds strongly shed Asian sovereign debt in response to euro disaster risk shocks. Markets with greater investment-fund presence exhibit considerably larger price spillovers. The main driver of this sell-off is the need to generate liquidity to meet investor redemption demands rather than portfolio rebalancing. Especially market liquidity determines which sovereign debt investment funds shed. Taken together, our findings suggest that due to a flighty investor base investment funds are powerful transmitters of spillovers from local shocks across global financial markets.
- JEL Code
- F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 2 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3130Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the interplay between macroprudential policy, monetary policy and the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector, drawing on recent research and zooming in particularly on evidence from the euro area2. It documents the growth in the NBFI sector over the past two decades and its particular role in financing the real economy, assesses systemic risks that can emanate from the sector, considers how it interacts with monetary policy, and discusses the implications for macroprudential regulation. Firms are increasingly turning to capital markets for debt financing, with the NBFI sector thereby increasing its provision of credit to the real economy relative to banks. At the same time, the growth of market-based finance has been accompanied by increased liquidity and credit risk in the NBFI sector, together with pockets of high leverage. Monetary policy has also intersected with these dynamics. Recent episodes have shown that vulnerabilities in the NBFI sector can amplify market dynamics and create systemic risk in a highly interconnected financial system. Against this backdrop, the resilience of the NBFI sector should be strengthened, including from a macroprudential perspective, to support financial stability and the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Several open issues and challenges remain for future research and policy making.
- JEL Code
- G01 : Financial Economics→General→Financial Crises
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 2 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3129Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates how unrealized losses on banks’ amortized cost securities affect monetary policy transmission to bank lending in the euro area. Leveraging the sharp increase in interest rates between 2022 and 2023 and using granular supervisory data on security holdings and loan-level credit register data, we show that a one percentage point increase in the share of unrealized losses on amortized cost securities amplifies the contractionary effect of monetary tightening on lending supply by approximately one percentage point. This effect is more pronounced for weakly capitalized and less liquid banks, and those relying more on uninsured deposits. We further document that banks respond to growing unrealized losses by raising capital and passing through interest rate increases to depositors via higher deposit betas. Importantly, banks that employ interest rate hedging strategies can fully offset the negative impact of unrealized losses on credit supply. The contraction in lending is particularly severe for smaller borrowing firms, highlighting the uneven economic consequences of hidden balance sheet fragilities during a tightening cycle.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
M41 : Business Administration and Business Economics, Marketing, Accounting→Accounting and Auditing→Accounting
- 1 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3128Details
- Abstract
- This paper presents the first causal evidence on how banks adjust their voluntary capital buffers (the capital headroom above the required level) in response to changes in capital requirements. Using granular euro area data and exploiting the threshold-based assignment of Other Systemically Important Institution (O-SII) buffers within a regression discontinuity design, we study the liability side of banks’ balance sheets, complementing the asset-focused literature on lending and risk-taking. This allows us to assess whether capital regulation is effective in enhancing bank resilience, arguably its main objective. We find that banks offset about half of higher capital requirements by cutting their voluntary buffers rather than raising new equity. The offsetting effect is more pronounced among banks with weaker balance sheets, particularly those with higher levels of non-performing loans. These results indicate that regulation aimed at strengthening resilience may be only partially effective, as banks use existing voluntary buffers when subject to higher requirements.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 1 October 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3127Details
- Abstract
- In this paper, we examine how different household consumption items respond to monetary policy shocks in the euro area. Specifically, we classify household consumption along two key dimensions: durability and essentiality. Our findings reveal pronounced heterogeneity in responses across these dimensions. First, durable items are highly sensitive to monetary policy shocks, whereas non-durable items exhibit weaker responses. Second, non-essential items react more strongly than essential items. Finally, we demonstrate that durability and essentiality each independently shape the sensitivity of household consumption to monetary policy shocks, with durable non-essential items being most strongly affected.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
C23 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Panel Data Models, Spatio-temporal Models
- 30 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3126Details
- Abstract
- Using novel data on sectoral safe asset positions in 21 advanced economies since 1980, we document the central role of the foreign sector in the market for safety and its macroeconomic implications. We show that safe asset holdings have expanded significantly relative to GDP, driven by rising net holdings of the foreign sector and accommodated by increased issuance from the financial and public sectors. Furthermore, fluctuations in safe assets are almost exclusively driven by the foreign and financial sectors, with close links between the two. Finally, increases in foreign demand for safety-or its counterpart, the supply by financials-are associated with domestic credit expansions and weaker medium-term output growth, both in raw data and when using FX reserve accumulation in Asian economies as instrument.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
F33 : International Economics→International Finance→International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
- 30 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3125Details
- Abstract
- We develop a model in which agents face unemployment risk, but also age and eventually retire. We study the impact of different retirement schemes on life-cycle consumption and the monetary transmission mechanism. Agents save because of a fall in income upon retirement, changes along the life-cycle wage profile, and unemployment risk. Changes in retirement policies affect the distribution of available assets (bonds) among the middle aged and the young, which in turn can have a strong impact on the ability of the young to insure themselves against unemployment risk. Interestingly, it is possible that an increase in retirement benefits leads to higher consumption levels during sustained unemployment spells even though the associated increase in taxes reduces unemployment benefits. The reason is that this policy induces the middle aged to save less which leaves more of the available asset supply to the young. A reduction in the interest rate has a bigger impact on those for whom labor market conditions improve the most and – due to a larger negative income effect – has a smaller impact on those who save more. In terms of the aggregate impact of monetary-policy shocks, our paper confirms conventional wisdom that the expansion is magnified in the presence of incomplete markets, since it is then accompanied by a fall in precautionary savings. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the extent of the incompleteness, i.e., the ability of those subject to unemployment risk to insure themselves, is endogenous. Specifically, it is reduced as the young (middle-aged) hold a larger (smaller) fraction of the available asset supply and this distribution is not only affected by retirement policies, but also by government bond supply and the life-cycle wage profile. Thus, understanding the distribution of assets across different age cohorts is not only important for understanding life-cycle consumption patterns, but also business cycles.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
- 29 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3124Details
- Abstract
- This study examines the drivers of inflation levels, inflation variability, and growth variability collectively representing long-term central bank performance across 37 advanced economies in the Great Moderation era. A key finding is that central bank performance is consistently linked to the overall quality of institutions, while central bank-specific factors such as independence, exchange rate regimes, or inflation targeting show no significant impact. The analysis is extended to the 2022 inflation resurgence, using pre-2022 country characteristics. The results indicate that reliance on imports from Russia (likely gas) and its interaction with post-COVID GDP growth are the primary determinants, suggesting that the inflation surge was not a reversal of the Great Moderation.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 29 September 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3123Details
- Abstract
- Business cycles with pronounced inflation can have sectoral origins and often feature a growing share of price-adjusting firms. Rationalizing such phenomena requires enhancing our modeling toolkit. We do that by building a non-linear equilibrium multi-sector framework featuring a general input-output network and optimal decisions on the timing and size of price adjustments. The interaction of our ingredients creates equilibrium cascades: large movements in aggregates trigger price adjustment decisions on the extensive margin. Following demand shocks, such as monetary interventions, networks dampen cascades, thus slowing down price adjustment decisions and giving central banks substantial power to stimulate the real economy with limited inflationary consequences. In contrast, under supply shocks, networks amplify cascades, leading to fast increases in the frequency of repricing and large inflationary swings. Applied to Euro Area data, the interaction of networks with cascades allows to quantitatively match the surges in inflation and repricing frequency in the post-Covid era.
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles - Network
- Challenges for Monetary Policy Transmission in a Changing World Network (ChaMP)
- 29 September 2025
- AMI-SECO REPORT
- 26 September 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 26 September 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
Tipos de interés
| Facilidad de depósito | 2,00 % |
| Operaciones principales de financiación (tipo fijo) | 2,15 % |
| Facilidad marginal de crédito | 2,40 % |
Tasa de inflación
Más información sobre la inflaciónTipos de cambio
| USD | US dollar | 1.1611 | |
| JPY | Japanese yen | 177.40 | |
| GBP | Pound sterling | 0.86830 | |
| CHF | Swiss franc | 0.9309 |
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¿Qué es el Banco Central Europeo?