Inte tillgängligt på svenska
Tomáš Konečný
- 15 March 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2037Details
- Abstract
- Most studies focusing on the determinants of loss given default (LGD) have largely ignored possible lagged effects of the macroeconomy on LGD. We fill this gap by employing a wide set of macroeconomic covariates on a retail portfolio that represents 15% of the Czech consumer credit market over the period 2002
- JEL Code
- C02 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→General→Mathematical Methods
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
G33 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Bankruptcy, Liquidation
- 10 September 2014
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1730Details
- Abstract
- Various approaches have been employed to explore the possibility of non-linear feedback between the real and financial sector. The present study focuses on the impact of real shocks on selected financial sector indicators, and the responses of the real economy to impulses emanating from the financial sector. We estimate the threshold Bayesian VAR with block restrictions and the credit spread as a threshold variable using the example of the Czech Republic. We find that while there is no evidence of asymmetric effects across positive and negative shocks, the responses of the financial sector to real shocks tend to differ in low and high credit spread regimes. Responses in the opposite direction (i.e. from the financial sector to the real economy) are procyclical and similar irrespective of regime. A positive shock to credit and a negative shock to the NPL increase industrial production over the entire time horizon. The direct impact of foreign factors on lending seems to be rather limited.
- JEL Code
- E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes - Network
- Macroprudential Research Network