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2022 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2022 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 June 2023 June 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 7.3 3.6 2.1 3.6 2.2 2.2
Standard deviation 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7
Number of replies 54 54 48 42 34 46
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 June 2023 June 2024 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.40.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.80.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.30.6
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.5 2.1 0.3 2.72.2
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 0.6 4.9 0.7 5.35.7
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 1.9 10.2 2.7 11.511.5
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 3.2 20.4 5.5 18.520.4
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 7.0 21.2 9.4 19.726.2
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 11.5 16.7 14.7 15.616.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.1 16.2 10.2 17.1 8.87.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.5 20.2 5.3 13.4 5.43.9
4.0 to 4.4% 1.3 14.0 3.2 12.0 4.22.0
4.5 to 4.9% 5.5 15.2 3.2 13.3 4.52.6
>5.0% 92.5 9.3 0.7 10.4 1.40.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q3 core inflation forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 June 2023 June 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 3.6 2.9 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.2
Standard deviation 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8
Number of replies 39 39 35 34 29 30
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 June 2023 June 2024 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.30.5
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 0.1 1.6 0.7 1.11.9
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.1 3.25.5
1.0 to 1.4% 0.2 3.3 10.1 4.4 8.612.2
1.5 to 1.9% 0.6 7.3 21.6 8.6 18.222.7
2.0 to 2.4% 2.6 16.2 25.3 14.5 25.825.4
2.5 to 2.9% 10.7 22.7 17.8 20.7 19.615.7
3.0 to 3.4% 26.3 21.8 9.6 21.1 10.57.7
3.5 to 3.9% 36.6 15.4 4.4 14.1 5.63.4
4.0 to 4.4% 14.5 7.3 2.3 7.2 2.91.3
4.5 to 4.9% 6.1 2.8 0.9 2.7 1.10.6
>5.0% 2.5 2.0 2.6 3.6 3.02.7
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2027
Mean point estimate 2.8 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.7 1.5
Standard deviation 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.4
Number of replies 55 55 49 43 37 43
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 2023 Q1 2024 Q1 2027
<-1.0% 0.0 2.3 1.3 7.0 3.30.7
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 2.9 1.3 6.6 1.71.0
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 5.6 2.1 10.9 3.02.2
0.0 to 0.4% 0.6 9.7 5.1 13.8 7.46.3
0.5 to 0.9% 1.2 12.7 9.9 14.4 14.214.1
1.0 to 1.4% 3.1 16.0 18.2 16.3 19.823.4
1.5 to 1.9% 9.0 21.4 23.9 12.9 18.123.2
2.0 to 2.4% 22.6 14.9 18.1 8.4 13.914.1
2.5 to 2.9% 33.7 8.0 11.9 5.0 9.47.5
3.0 to 3.4% 19.5 3.5 4.8 2.2 4.24.1
3.5 to 3.9% 6.1 1.5 2.0 0.9 2.41.9
>4.0% 3.8 1.4 1.4 1.6 2.51.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2022 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2022 2023 2024 May 2023 May 2024 2027
Mean point estimate 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6
Number of replies 47 47 41 29 28 37
Probability distributions 2022 2023 2024 May 2023 May 2024 2027
<4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.52.2
4.0 to 4.4% 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 1.51.5
4.5 to 4.9% 0.6 1.5 2.2 1.5 2.82.5
5.0 to 5.4% 2.2 4.3 4.8 3.5 5.76.5
5.5 to 5.9% 5.3 8.9 11.1 9.7 11.812.8
6.0 to 6.4% 18.6 19.8 23.6 21.5 20.919.8
6.5 to 6.9% 45.5 32.7 26.4 29.6 23.920.4
7.0 to 7.4% 19.5 18.2 15.0 17.9 14.616.0
7.5 to 7.9% 4.5 8.2 7.3 8.4 9.18.9
8.0 to 8.4% 2.0 3.5 4.3 4.4 5.14.8
8.5 to 8.9% 0.9 1.5 2.4 2.0 2.92.4
9.0 to 9.4% 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.81.4
9.5 to 9.9% 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.50.7
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.00.1
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.00.0
>11.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0