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2017 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2017 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Dec. 2017 Dec. 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 55 52 41 48 46 43
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Dec. 2017 Dec. 2018 2021
<-1.0% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.20.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.50.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.51.4
0.0 to 0.4% 4.3 4.3 4.7 5.2 4.93.1
0.5 to 0.9% 15.9 11.0 9.9 14.8 10.97.5
1.0 to 1.4% 41.4 28.9 22.5 32.3 24.519.9
1.5 to 1.9% 27.3 36.9 34.4 31.4 36.135.2
2.0 to 2.4% 7.3 12.1 17.5 10.3 14.520.3
2.5 to 2.9% 1.9 3.9 6.1 3.1 4.97.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.9 1.42.7
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.50.9
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Dec. 2017 Dec. 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 29 29 26 26 26 24
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Dec. 2017 Dec. 2018 2021
<-1.0% 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.20.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.30.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.10.5
0.0 to 0.4% 6.4 5.8 4.9 6.9 5.52.6
0.5 to 0.9% 29.9 19.3 13.9 22.3 14.69.1
1.0 to 1.4% 46.1 39.7 30.1 39.6 30.623.9
1.5 to 1.9% 12.4 25.8 33.1 22.7 32.837.5
2.0 to 2.4% 2.3 6.0 11.8 4.6 11.118.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.6 1.3 3.5 1.2 2.55.2
3.0 to 3.4% 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.71.8
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.40.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2021
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 55 51 40 47 44 41
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2021
<-1.0% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.60.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.70.8
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.5 2.01.9
0.0 to 0.4% 3.6 5.0 6.0 4.0 5.44.6
0.5 to 0.9% 10.6 12.5 14.4 12.1 11.911.6
1.0 to 1.4% 29.5 27.4 26.9 29.1 27.323.1
1.5 to 1.9% 38.6 32.7 28.6 34.3 30.630.1
2.0 to 2.4% 10.9 12.2 12.8 11.7 12.915.6
2.5 to 2.9% 3.5 4.9 5.3 4.1 5.37.0
3.0 to 3.4% 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.03.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.81.2
>4.0% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.50.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2017 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2017 2018 2019 Nov. 2017 Nov. 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 9.5 9.2 8.9 9.3 9.0 8.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6
Number of replies 49 46 35 39 37 34
Probability distributions 2017 2018 2019 Nov. 2017 Nov. 2018 2021
<6.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.22.1
6.5 to 6.9% 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.52.9
7.0 to 7.4% 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.3 1.35.6
7.5 to 7.9% 0.4 2.2 4.4 0.9 4.19.6
8.0 to 8.4% 1.3 6.2 11.1 3.5 9.716.6
8.5 to 8.9% 5.5 19.7 24.6 13.3 19.121.1
9.0 to 9.4% 28.2 33.2 28.5 31.4 28.221.2
9.5 to 9.9% 41.7 21.1 16.7 30.9 21.211.7
10.0 to 10.4% 14.2 9.7 7.2 11.4 10.04.9
10.5 to 10.9% 4.9 3.8 2.6 4.8 3.72.5
11.0 to 11.4% 2.4 1.6 1.1 2.2 1.11.2
11.5 to 11.9% 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.40.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.20.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0