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2016 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2016 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Sep. 2017 Sep. 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 0.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.8
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 46 46 43 39 34 34
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Sep. 2017 Sep. 2018 2021
<-1.0% 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.40.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 1.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.70.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 12.2 2.4 1.5 3.2 1.91.3
0.0 to 0.4% 69.9 7.6 5.6 10.3 6.43.0
0.5 to 0.9% 12.6 20.7 13.2 20.9 14.37.4
1.0 to 1.4% 2.1 39.4 30.3 33.5 27.020.2
1.5 to 1.9% 0.7 20.4 31.8 19.2 29.234.0
2.0 to 2.4% 0.2 5.9 10.6 7.6 12.820.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.1 2.0 4.4 3.0 4.98.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.8 1.72.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.61.0
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q4 core inflation forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Sep. 2017 Sep. 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2
Number of replies 30 30 30 27 26 22
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Sep. 2017 Sep. 2018 2021
Total

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2021
Mean point estimate 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.6
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 47 47 43 39 34 34
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2021
<-1.0% 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.40.5
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.70.7
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.82.4
0.0 to 0.4% 1.5 4.5 4.9 5.3 4.85.1
0.5 to 0.9% 5.9 13.3 11.8 15.3 12.411.5
1.0 to 1.4% 25.0 32.3 27.7 34.3 28.121.6
1.5 to 1.9% 54.2 32.2 32.1 29.6 30.529.7
2.0 to 2.4% 9.4 9.4 13.5 8.4 13.715.6
2.5 to 2.9% 2.2 3.4 4.6 2.7 4.87.4
3.0 to 3.4% 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.73.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.61.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.50.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2016 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2016 2017 2018 Aug. 2017 Aug. 2018 2021
Mean point estimate 10.1 9.7 9.3 9.7 9.3 8.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
Number of replies 44 44 39 34 30 29
Probability distributions 2016 2017 2018 Aug. 2017 Aug. 2018 2021
<6.5% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.31.7
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.62.9
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 1.54.5
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 0.9 3.0 0.7 3.28.3
8.0 to 8.4% 0.3 3.0 6.4 2.4 7.114.1
8.5 to 8.9% 3.2 5.9 13.4 5.7 13.520.2
9.0 to 9.4% 3.8 17.5 29.8 17.8 24.621.2
9.5 to 9.9% 19.7 41.6 26.7 36.8 26.314.6
10.0 to 10.4% 58.1 20.4 11.9 23.4 13.97.4
10.5 to 10.9% 9.8 6.8 4.2 8.8 6.33.2
11.0 to 11.4% 3.0 2.1 1.6 2.5 1.71.2
11.5 to 11.9% 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.60.4
12.0 to 12.4% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.20.2
12.5 to 12.9% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0