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2015 Q4

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2015 Q4 inflation forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Sep. 2016 Sep. 2017 2020
Mean point estimate 0.1 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.9
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 58 57 52 48 42 44
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Sep. 2016 Sep. 2017 2020
<-1.0% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.20.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.70.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 24.1 3.7 1.6 4.4 1.60.9
0.0 to 0.4% 62.6 11.7 5.4 11.6 5.82.9
0.5 to 0.9% 8.1 29.0 12.0 27.7 12.68.3
1.0 to 1.4% 1.7 34.6 26.7 30.2 26.119.3
1.5 to 1.9% 0.4 14.3 33.2 15.8 31.632.1
2.0 to 2.4% 0.1 4.0 14.1 5.9 13.821.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.1 4.99.9
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.7 1.93.6
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.51.2
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2015 Q4 real GDP growth forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2020
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 59 58 52 48 42 45
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2020
<-1.0% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.40.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.61.0
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.52.1
0.0 to 0.4% 1.9 2.9 3.6 3.6 3.64.2
0.5 to 0.9% 6.5 8.6 8.4 10.9 9.310.1
1.0 to 1.4% 33.3 23.7 20.3 25.7 22.319.8
1.5 to 1.9% 48.8 38.4 33.9 31.9 32.229.8
2.0 to 2.4% 6.5 17.2 20.1 16.2 17.918.6
2.5 to 2.9% 1.3 4.7 7.4 5.8 7.38.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.4 3.13.2
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.21.5
>4.0% 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.60.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2015 Q4 unemployment rate forecasts
  2015 2016 2017 Aug. 2016 Aug. 2017 2020
Mean point estimate 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.5 10.1 9.2
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9
Number of replies 54 54 48 41 37 36
Probability distributions 2015 2016 2017 Aug. 2016 Aug. 2017 2020
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.7
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.4
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.42.6
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.75.1
8.0 to 8.4% 0.1 0.4 2.0 0.4 1.711.2
8.5 to 8.9% 0.2 1.5 3.2 0.8 3.615.1
9.0 to 9.4% 1.1 3.0 11.1 2.6 8.318.6
9.5 to 9.9% 2.6 7.7 20.5 8.3 20.718.8
10.0 to 10.4% 3.7 25.9 28.0 25.3 25.812.0
10.5 to 10.9% 26.6 34.8 18.4 34.5 20.56.0
11.0 to 11.4% 51.8 17.0 7.8 17.1 8.83.1
11.5 to 11.9% 9.4 6.6 4.4 7.2 5.41.6
12.0 to 12.4% 3.0 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.71.1
12.5 to 12.9% 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.80.9
13.0 to 13.4% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.41.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.6
14.0 to 14.4% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0