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2009 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2009 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2009 2010 2011 June 2010 June 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.6 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2
Number of replies 52 52 44 47 41 40
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2011 June 2010 June 2011 2014
<-2.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.1
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.40.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 2.4 2.4 1.2 1.3 1.00.1
-0.5 to -0.1% 12.6 4.2 3.6 3.1 1.80.4
0.0 to 0.4% 45.1 11.4 5.5 9.4 4.41.3
0.5 to 0.9% 32.4 20.9 9.6 21.0 11.14.7
1.0 to 1.4% 6.1 29.6 19.0 26.1 19.613.5
1.5 to 1.9% 0.8 19.4 30.1 21.1 31.431.9
2.0 to 2.4% 0.1 9.1 20.4 12.1 20.128.4
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 2.3 7.5 4.4 7.512.3
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.2 2.0 1.2 2.15.1
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.51.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2009 2010 2011 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2014
Mean point estimate -4.5 0.3 1.5 -0.4 1.3 1.9
Standard deviation 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 53 53 46 46 43 38
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2011 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2014
<-6.0% 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-6.0 to -5.6% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-5.5 to -5.1% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-5.0 to -4.6% 31.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.5 to -4.1% 34.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
-4.0 to -3.6% 15.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
-3.5 to -3.1% 5.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.00.0
-3.0 to -2.6% 1.7 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.10.0
-2.5 to -2.1% 0.7 0.5 0.1 2.6 0.10.0
-2.0 to -1.6% 0.2 1.2 0.1 6.1 0.10.0
-1.5 to -1.1% 0.1 3.4 0.3 15.2 0.20.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 8.4 0.7 18.2 1.00.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.0 18.2 2.6 20.8 3.00.8
0.0 to 0.4% 0.0 28.3 8.0 15.0 10.43.1
0.5 to 0.9% 0.0 22.5 16.3 11.7 19.36.7
1.0 to 1.4% 0.0 10.8 26.2 5.5 29.017.4
1.5 to 1.9% 0.0 4.5 24.6 2.5 20.829.1
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 1.3 13.2 1.0 10.325.9
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 0.3 5.6 0.1 4.510.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.0 0.94.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.11.3
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.00.2
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2009 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2009 2010 2011 May 2010 May 2011 2014
Mean point estimate 9.7 10.9 10.6 10.9 10.7 8.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8
Number of replies 52 52 45 46 41 36
Probability distributions 2009 2010 2011 May 2010 May 2011 2014
<5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
5.5 to 5.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.3
6.0 to 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.04.4
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.08.6
7.5 to 7.9% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.017.6
8.0 to 8.4% 0.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.520.1
8.5 to 8.9% 3.1 0.3 3.1 0.5 3.017.9
9.0 to 9.4% 20.0 3.2 6.8 2.2 5.914.1
9.5 to 9.9% 50.0 8.8 13.3 6.7 13.37.5
10.0 to 10.4% 20.4 20.7 20.6 18.5 19.73.9
10.5 to 10.9% 4.7 24.7 22.3 26.1 23.43.1
11.0 to 11.4% 1.1 22.1 14.2 24.1 15.21.1
11.5 to 11.9% 0.2 13.4 9.8 14.7 10.10.3
12.0 to 12.4% 0.1 4.8 5.8 5.3 5.80.1
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 1.5 2.3 1.5 2.10.1
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.60.0
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.20.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0