- CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS SURVEY – LATEST RESULTS
Inflation perceptions and expectations
Frankfurt am Main, 5 December 2023
Overview
This report contains the main aggregate indicators from the Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) related to inflation. Results are reported monthly at the euro area level, by country, by age group and by income quintile. The topics covered include:
- Inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months
- Inflation expectations over the next 12 months
- Inflation expectations three years ahead
The table below provides an overview of the latest results for the main indicators included in this report. For more detailed information on how the aggregate indicators are computed, please refer to the Guide to the computation of aggregate statistics and the CES Methodological information on the survey, available on the data and methodological information section of the CES webpage. The data behind the aggregate series included in this report can also be found under the same section.
Table 1
Overview of latest results – Inflation perceptions and expectations
Inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months
In the qualitative question, respondents are asked: “First, we would like to ask you about changes in the general level of prices for goods and services in the country you currently live in. Compared with 12 months ago, what do you think has happened to prices in general?” The possible responses are “Prices went up a lot”, “Prices went down a lot”, “Prices went up a little”, “Prices went down a little” and “Prices stayed exactly the same (that is 0% change)”.
In the open-ended (quantitative) question, respondents are asked: “How much higher/lower do you think prices in general are now compared with 12 months ago in the country you currently live in?”
Chart 1
Inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months – qualitative
Chart 2
Inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months – pooled
Chart 3
Median inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months – by country
Chart 4
Median inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months – by age group
Chart 5
Median inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months – by income quintile
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months
In the qualitative question, respondents are asked: “Looking ahead to 12 months from now, what do you think will happen to prices in general?” The possible responses are “Prices will increase a lot”, “Prices will decrease a lot”, “Prices will increase a little”, “Prices will decrease a little” and “Prices will be exactly the same (that is 0% change)”.
In the open-ended (quantitative) question, respondents are asked: “How much higher/lower do you think prices in general will be 12 months from now in the country you currently live in?”
An additional important feature of the CES is that it utilises a probabilistic-type question to elicit expectations and individual uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months. The question asks respondents to assign probabilities to future inflation outcomes by allocating 100 points across up to ten intervals of changes in prices (bins) to indicate the likelihood that future inflation will lie in each of them.[1]
Chart 6
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months – qualitative
Chart 7
Inflation expectations over the next 12 months – pooled
Chart 8
Median inflation expectations over the next 12 months – by country
Chart 9
Median inflation expectations over the next 12 months – by age group
Chart 10
Median inflation expectations over the next 12 months – by income quintile
Inflation expectations three years ahead
In the qualitative question, respondents are asked: “Please think further ahead to two years from now. What do you think will happen to prices in general in the country you currently live in over the 12-month period between two years from now and three years from now?” The possible responses are “Prices will increase a lot”, “Prices will decrease a lot”, “Prices will increase a little”, “Prices will decrease a little” and “Prices will be exactly the same (that is 0% change)”.
In the open-ended (quantitative) question, respondents are asked: “By about what percentage do you expect prices in general in the country you currently live in to increase/decrease over the 12-month period between two years from now and three years from now?”
Chart 13
Inflation expectations three years ahead – qualitative
Chart 14
Inflation expectations three years ahead – pooled
Chart 15
Median inflation expectations three years ahead – by country
Chart 16
Median inflation expectations three years ahead – by age group
Chart 17
Median inflation expectations three years ahead – by income quintile
From July 2022 two additional intervals (“Decrease by 12% or more” and “Increase by 12% or more”) were included at the lower and upper outermost ends of the set of intervals respectively, bringing the total number of bins up from eight to ten.