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2024 Q1

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2024 Q1 inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Dec. 2024 Dec. 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.0 2.0
Standard deviation 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2
Number of replies 59 57 46 47 45 49
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Dec. 2024 Dec. 2025 2028
<-1.0% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.90.4
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 1.20.5
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.4 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.11.1
0.0 to 0.4% 1.0 2.7 3.4 2.7 3.82.4
0.5 to 0.9% 2.4 5.4 6.3 5.3 7.06.3
1.0 to 1.4% 6.0 10.5 11.0 8.9 11.711.8
1.5 to 1.9% 13.2 23.5 23.3 16.0 20.522.0
2.0 to 2.4% 28.5 27.6 26.9 23.0 21.827.2
2.5 to 2.9% 26.9 14.3 12.6 19.7 13.814.3
3.0 to 3.4% 13.2 7.2 7.0 11.5 8.07.3
3.5 to 3.9% 5.0 3.4 3.7 5.9 4.53.5
4.0 to 4.4% 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.41.7
4.5 to 4.9% 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.40.8
>5.0% 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.90.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q1 core inflation forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Dec. 2024 Dec. 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.0
Standard deviation 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 43 43 34 39 38 37
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Dec. 2024 Dec. 2025 2028
<-1.0% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.30.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.30.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.70.7
0.0 to 0.4% 0.4 1.4 1.9 0.8 2.21.6
0.5 to 0.9% 1.0 3.3 4.6 2.3 4.95.1
1.0 to 1.4% 3.6 9.6 10.7 6.3 11.211.1
1.5 to 1.9% 9.7 22.0 24.1 15.4 21.624.7
2.0 to 2.4% 25.1 32.8 30.2 25.3 27.729.5
2.5 to 2.9% 27.8 16.5 14.1 23.7 15.315.1
3.0 to 3.4% 20.7 7.9 7.6 16.5 8.87.0
3.5 to 3.9% 7.6 3.7 3.7 6.3 4.12.5
4.0 to 4.4% 3.2 1.4 1.2 2.1 2.11.2
4.5 to 4.9% 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.60.7
>5.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.30.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q1 real GDP growth forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 2024 Q3 2025 Q3 2028
Mean point estimate 0.6 1.3 1.4 0.7 1.4 1.3
Standard deviation 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3
Number of replies 59 57 48 48 42 44
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 2024 Q3 2025 Q3 2028
<-1.0% 2.2 1.2 1.1 3.3 2.51.6
-1.0 to -0.6% 3.4 1.4 1.2 4.0 1.61.6
-0.5 to -0.1% 9.3 3.9 2.5 10.8 3.83.4
0.0 to 0.4% 24.3 8.0 6.2 21.6 8.17.6
0.5 to 0.9% 29.6 13.9 11.4 28.4 14.315.7
1.0 to 1.4% 19.7 28.3 26.7 16.8 24.024.4
1.5 to 1.9% 7.6 23.5 27.3 8.3 23.023.6
2.0 to 2.4% 2.4 11.5 13.0 3.2 11.611.8
2.5 to 2.9% 1.0 4.5 6.2 1.5 5.65.2
3.0 to 3.4% 0.4 2.0 2.5 0.8 2.62.4
3.5 to 3.9% 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 1.31.4
>4.0% 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.51.3
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2024 Q1 unemployment rate forecasts
  2024 2025 2026 Nov. 2024 Nov. 2025 2028
Mean point estimate 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Number of replies 52 51 43 40 39 42
Probability distributions 2024 2025 2026 Nov. 2024 Nov. 2025 2028
<4.0% 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.7 1.11.2
4.0 to 4.4% 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 1.00.9
4.5 to 4.9% 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.3 1.92.1
5.0 to 5.4% 1.4 2.3 3.6 2.4 3.46.1
5.5 to 5.9% 4.6 8.0 10.4 7.1 10.013.6
6.0 to 6.4% 24.8 25.8 28.7 24.4 22.224.3
6.5 to 6.9% 41.2 31.9 26.6 31.3 27.122.4
7.0 to 7.4% 17.9 17.3 14.9 17.5 15.912.3
7.5 to 7.9% 5.0 6.6 6.3 7.8 8.87.4
8.0 to 8.4% 1.9 2.9 2.9 3.6 4.34.0
8.5 to 8.9% 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.22.2
9.0 to 9.4% 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.11.4
9.5 to 9.9% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.50.8
10.0 to 10.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.20.4
10.5 to 10.9% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.3
>11.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.10.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0