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2010 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2010 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2010 2011 2012 June 2011 June 2012 2015
Mean point estimate 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 2.0
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 55 54 41 45 36 43
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2012 June 2011 June 2012 2015
<-1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.30.3
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.40.8
0.0 to 0.4% 2.5 3.5 4.3 4.1 3.52.0
0.5 to 0.9% 8.4 11.8 9.7 11.5 8.96.3
1.0 to 1.4% 40.0 30.2 20.0 29.1 21.115.9
1.5 to 1.9% 40.8 34.1 33.9 33.1 31.530.2
2.0 to 2.4% 6.4 14.1 21.4 15.7 23.226.9
2.5 to 2.9% 1.1 4.0 6.5 3.8 7.110.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.0 1.9 1.0 2.44.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.51.5
>4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.10.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2010 2011 2012 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2015
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 55 54 42 44 36 41
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2012 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2015
<-1.0% 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.40.1
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.40.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 1.1 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.40.9
0.0 to 0.4% 5.1 5.7 4.0 6.4 4.82.9
0.5 to 0.9% 29.8 16.3 10.8 18.7 14.28.1
1.0 to 1.4% 45.7 32.9 26.2 29.6 27.218.2
1.5 to 1.9% 14.3 25.6 30.3 26.0 27.729.7
2.0 to 2.4% 2.8 11.3 17.2 12.1 15.622.7
2.5 to 2.9% 0.4 3.0 5.9 4.0 5.710.7
3.0 to 3.4% 0.2 1.1 2.1 0.9 2.04.5
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.41.4
>4.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2010 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2010 2011 2012 May 2011 May 2012 2015
Mean point estimate 10.1 10.2 9.8 10.2 9.9 8.4
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8
Number of replies 54 53 42 41 35 38
Probability distributions 2010 2011 2012 May 2011 May 2012 2015
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.5
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.12.6
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.27.1
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.916.1
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.7 2.820.4
8.5 to 8.9% 0.4 2.3 7.4 2.1 6.419.1
9.0 to 9.4% 3.2 8.1 16.8 7.4 15.515.6
9.5 to 9.9% 22.7 23.5 26.6 23.9 24.78.3
10.0 to 10.4% 51.3 31.1 24.0 30.4 24.64.0
10.5 to 10.9% 17.5 21.2 12.3 21.8 13.12.2
11.0 to 11.4% 3.6 9.4 6.0 8.9 7.21.6
11.5 to 11.9% 1.0 2.6 3.0 3.5 3.61.1
12.0 to 12.4% 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.80.8
12.5 to 12.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.20.3
13.0 to 13.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.00.1
13.5 to 13.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.0 to 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0