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2001 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2001 Q2 inflation forecasts
  2001 2002 Mar. 2002 Mar. 2003 2005
Mean point estimate 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 62 61 57 52 45
Probability distributions 2001 2002 Mar. 2002 Mar. 2003 2005
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.40.4
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.91.2
0.5-0.9% 0.0 2.3 3.1 3.66.2
1.0-1.4% 1.4 14.0 14.8 17.117.3
1.5-1.9% 16.3 45.6 42.9 40.440.6
2.0-2.4% 58.1 29.3 30.3 27.022.6
2.5-2.9% 21.9 5.6 6.9 5.97.5
3.0-3.4% 2.1 2.0 1.0 4.03.4
>3.4% 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.70.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  2001 2002 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2005
Mean point estimate 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.8 2.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 62 60 54 53 45
Probability distributions 2001 2002 2001 Q4 2002 Q4 2005
<0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.10.2
0.0-0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.10.6
0.5-0.9% 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.61.3
1.0-1.4% 1.3 2.5 5.8 3.04.0
1.5-1.9% 10.4 8.8 14.9 8.811.2
2.0-2.4% 41.8 26.9 36.3 22.324.9
2.5-2.9% 40.0 41.6 33.6 38.833.9
3.0-3.4% 5.4 16.0 7.8 18.916.4
3.5-3.9% 0.7 2.8 0.4 5.65.1
>3.9% 0.1 0.6 0.1 1.82.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2001 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  2001 2002 Feb. 2002 Feb. 2003 2005
Mean point estimate 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.0 7.3
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8
Number of replies 59 57 51 48 42
Probability distributions 2001 2002 Feb. 2002 Feb. 2003 2005
<6.5% 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.59.0
6.5-6.9% 0.0 1.4 0.3 4.216.4
7.0-7.4% 0.6 4.0 2.3 9.323.4
7.5-7.9% 4.4 21.2 16.6 29.122.1
8.0-8.4% 36.4 40.9 40.9 30.412.6
8.5-8.9% 47.0 22.2 30.1 16.96.6
9.0-9.4% 10.2 8.1 8.6 7.25.2
9.5-9.9% 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.63.1
10.0-10.4% 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.40.9
10.5-10.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.20.5
11.0-11.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.10.2
11.5-11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
>11.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0