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Pietro Cova
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 372Details
- Abstract
- This report focuses on the implications of the changed inflation environment for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy, including the lessons learned from both the low inflation and high inflation periods, and the transition from one to the other. The starting point of the report is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Strategy Review 2020-21. While the previous review was conducted in an economic environment of low inflation, with interest rates in proximity to the effective lower bound (ELB), the inflation surge that followed the COVID-19 pandemic underscores the importance of a monetary policy strategy that enables the Governing Council to effectively respond to major changes in the inflation environment.
- 30 June 2025
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 371Details
- Abstract
- This report offers a strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area as part of the monetary policy strategy assessment 2025. It reassesses the factors shaping the inflation and economic environment in light of the recent inflation experience, analyses changes in structural factors and examines the implications for the inflation environment the ECB is likely to face. It also draws conclusions regarding the enhancements that need to be made to the existing analytical toolkit and inflation forecasting.
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 267Details
- Abstract
- This paper provides an assessment of the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis in the Eurosystem. These include semi-structural, structural and time-series models covering specific jurisdictions and the euro area within a closed economy, small open economy, multi-country or global setting. Models are used as analytical frameworks for building baseline projections and for supporting the preparation of monetary policy decisions. The paper delivers four main contributions. First, it provides a survey of the macroeconomic modelling portfolios currently used or under development within the Eurosystem. Second, it explores the analytical gaps in the Eurosystem models and investigates the scope for further enhancement of the main projection and policy models, and the creation of new models. Third, it reviews current practices in model-based analysis for monetary policy preparation and forecasting and provides recommendations and suggestions for improvement. Finally, it reviews existing cooperation modalities on model development and proposes alternative sourcing and organisational strategies to remedy any knowledge or analytical gaps identified.
- JEL Code
- C5 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 263Details
- Abstract
- This paper assesses how globalisation has shaped the economic environment in which the ECB operates and discusses whether this warrants adjustments to the monetary policy strategy. The paper first looks at how trade and financial integration have evolved since the last strategy review in 2003. It then examines the effects of these developments on global productivity growth, the natural interest rate (r*), inflation trends and monetary transmission. While trade globalisation initially boosted productivity growth, this effect may be waning as trade integration slows and market contestability promotes a winner-takes-all environment. The impact of globalisation on r* has been ambiguous: downward pressures, fuelled by global demand for safe assets and an increase in the propensity to save against a background of rising inequality, are counteracted by upward pressures, from the boost to global productivity associated with greater trade integration. Headline inflation rates have become more synchronised globally, largely because commodity prices are increasingly determined by global factors. Meanwhile, core inflation rates show a lower degree of commonality. Globalisation has made a rather modest contribution to the synchronised fall in trend inflation across countries and contributed only moderately to the reduction in the responsiveness of inflation to changes in activity. Regarding monetary transmission, globalisation has made the role of the exchange rate more complex by introducing new mechanisms through which it affects financial conditions, real activity and price dynamics. Against the background of this discussion, the paper then examines the implications for the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. In doing so, it asks two questions. How is the ECB’s economic and monetary analysis affected by globalisation? And how does globalisation influence the choice of the ECB’s monetary policy objective and instruments? ...
- JEL Code
- E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
F42 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Policy Coordination and Transmission
F44 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→International Business Cycles
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
F65 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Finance