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Katja Schmidt
- 19 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 365Details
- Abstract
- In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade integration has largely withstood recent disruptions and the rise of inward-looking policies, selective decoupling between few trading partners (United States vis-à-vis China, western economies vis-à-vis Russia) and for specific products (such as advanced technologies) is occurring. Survey data show that, although European firms are reorganising supply chains critical foreign dependencies persist. A firm-level stress test reveals that sudden disruptions in the supply of critical inputs from high-risk countries would lead to significant, albeit very heterogeneous, economic losses across firms, regions and sectors. Addressing foreign dependencies with broad-based protectionism policies, however, is self-defeating. In an extreme counterfactual scenario involving prohibitive and across-the-board trade barriers between geopolitical blocs, global GDP could decline by up to 9% coupled with an increase in global inflation of 4 percentage points in the first year, with the impact persisting for at least five years. It is conceivable that trade fragmentation will unravel over the course of a number of years, with supply disruptions becoming more frequent and severe than in the past. If this process should ultimately lead to a less interconnected global economy, countries might suffer from increased volatility and price pressures, as shocks cannot be easily diversified away through trade. [...]
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F52 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 24 October 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 332Details
- Abstract
- The recent spike in inflation, unprecedented in the history of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), has had major consequences for all areas of the economy, including public finances. This paper aims to provide a detailed assessment of the effects of high inflation on fiscal accounts in the euro area. Relying on the wealth of expertise in the Eurosystem – within the Working Group on Public Finance – it documents spending indexation arrangements in all euro area countries. Thanks to this knowledge, the ECB’s fiscal projection platform, which is the primary evaluation tool for this study, establishes a realistic link between prices and fiscal variables. The results of this paper bring into question the conventional wisdom on the overall positive effects of inflation on fiscal accounts. Indeed, the simulations point to adverse effects from the recent inflation surge, mainly triggered by an external supply shock, on budget balances during 2022-24. This is even without taking into account the negative impact of inflation on the real economy, mainly through monetary policy tightening. The analysis also points to the important role of the denominator effect for debt-to-GDP ratios, which may fall even in the absence of benefits for the budget balance. Finally, the analysis reveals a high degree of heterogeneity across countries.
- JEL Code
- C3 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- 20 April 2023
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 315Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal policy plays a prominent role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. An optimal combination of revenue policies, in particular taxes, and expenditure policies, such as subsidies and investment, is essential in order to achieve greenhouse gas emissions targets. This paper analyses the main fiscal instruments in place in European Union Member States, focusing on specific issues, such as the fiscal impact of extreme weather events, the interaction between debt sustainability and climate change, the green investment gap and the distributional impact of climate policies. The paper aims to provide an overview of existing fiscal policies and of the main fiscal challenges for a comprehensive European climate change strategy.
- JEL Code
- H2 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
H5 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies
H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
D63 : Microeconomics→Welfare Economics→Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
- 21 September 2021
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 273Details
- Abstract
- The last review of the ECB’s monetary policy strategy in 2003 followed a period of predominantly upside risks to price stability. Experience following the 2008 financial crisis has focused renewed attention on the question of how monetary and fiscal policy should best interact, in particular in an environment of structurally low interest rates and persistent downside risks to price stability. This debate has been further intensified by the economic impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. In the euro area, the unique architecture of a monetary union consisting of sovereign Member States, with cross-country heterogeneities and weaknesses in its overall construction, poses important challenges. Against this background, this report revisits monetary-fiscal policy interactions in the euro area from a monetary policy perspective and with a focus on the ramifications for price stability and maintaining central bank independence and credibility. The report consists of three parts. The first chapter presents a conceptual framework for thinking about monetary-fiscal policy interactions, thereby setting the stage for a discussion of specifically euro area aspects and challenges in subsequent parts of the report. In particular, it reviews the main ingredients of the pre-global financial crisis consensus on monetary-fiscal policy interactions and addresses significant new insights and refinements which have gained prominence since 2003. In doing so, the chapter distinguishes between general conceptual aspects – i.e. those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and a single fiscal authority and those aspects that pertain to an environment characterised by a single central bank and many fiscal authorities (a multi-country monetary union). ...
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
E63 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Stabilization, Treasury Policy
F45 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
- 21 April 2020
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 240Details
- Abstract
- The paper describes the main transmission channels of the spillovers of national fiscal policies to other countries within the euro area and investigates their magnitude using different models. In the context of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), fiscal spillovers are relevant for the accurate assessment of the cyclical outlook in euro area countries, as well as in the debates on a coordinated change in the euro area fiscal stance and on a euro area fiscal capacity. The paper focuses on spillovers from expenditure-based expansions by presenting two complementary exercises. The first is an empirical investigation of spillovers based on a new, long quarterly dataset for the largest euro area countries and on new estimates based on annual data for a panel of 11 euro area countries. The second uses a multi-country general equilibrium model with a rich fiscal specification and the capacity to analyse trade spillovers. Fiscal spillovers are found to be heterogeneous but generally positive among euro area countries. The reaction of interest rates to fiscal expansions is an important determinant of the magnitude of spillovers.