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2013 Q3

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

2013 Q3 inflation forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 June 2014 June 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.0
Standard deviation 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Number of replies 50 49 42 41 38 40
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 June 2014 June 2015 2018
<-1.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.10.2
-1.0 to -0.6% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.30.2
-0.5 to -0.1% 0.2 0.9 0.5 1.1 0.80.5
0.0 to 0.4% 1.3 3.5 3.0 4.2 3.32.0
0.5 to 0.9% 6.4 11.8 9.1 11.5 9.56.8
1.0 to 1.4% 34.9 27.9 20.4 25.9 19.614.7
1.5 to 1.9% 44.9 34.4 31.0 33.7 32.929.5
2.0 to 2.4% 9.1 14.5 22.8 15.4 21.425.4
2.5 to 2.9% 2.2 5.0 9.3 5.5 8.413.8
3.0 to 3.4% 0.7 1.3 2.5 1.7 2.54.9
3.5 to 3.9% 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.81.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.30.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

2013 Q3 real GDP growth forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2018
Mean point estimate -0.6 0.9 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 51 50 40 41 34 37
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2018
<-1.0% 13.9 1.5 0.3 2.0 0.60.3
-1.0 to -0.6% 43.4 2.5 0.7 4.5 1.30.4
-0.5 to -0.1% 30.2 8.1 2.4 14.1 4.81.7
0.0 to 0.4% 8.9 17.2 7.4 24.9 11.94.4
0.5 to 0.9% 2.7 28.3 15.1 28.1 21.610.5
1.0 to 1.4% 0.6 24.5 29.6 14.8 26.320.9
1.5 to 1.9% 0.1 10.9 25.5 7.0 17.927.4
2.0 to 2.4% 0.0 4.8 11.4 2.9 9.319.0
2.5 to 2.9% 0.0 1.5 4.5 0.9 4.29.2
3.0 to 3.4% 0.0 0.4 2.3 0.4 1.64.3
3.5 to 3.9% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.41.6
>4.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.10.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

2013 Q3 unemployment rate forecasts
  2013 2014 2015 May 2014 May 2015 2018
Mean point estimate 12.3 12.4 11.8 12.4 12.0 9.7
Standard deviation 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.6 1.0
Number of replies 48 48 38 36 32 35
Probability distributions 2013 2014 2015 May 2014 May 2015 2018
<6.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.8
6.5 to 6.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.0
7.0 to 7.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01.7
7.5 to 7.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.13.5
8.0 to 8.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.15.2
8.5 to 8.9% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.29.8
9.0 to 9.4% 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.614.2
9.5 to 9.9% 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 1.216.0
10.0 to 10.4% 0.2 0.6 3.7 0.7 2.416.5
10.5 to 10.9% 0.8 1.7 10.0 1.9 5.413.5
11.0 to 11.4% 2.6 6.7 16.0 4.5 10.47.7
11.5 to 11.9% 11.8 14.9 19.9 14.5 23.04.3
12.0 to 12.4% 46.7 30.8 22.1 30.3 25.42.9
12.5 to 12.9% 29.1 26.3 14.3 27.4 17.21.8
13.0 to 13.4% 6.7 12.9 7.5 13.6 9.20.8
13.5 to 13.9% 1.6 4.3 3.4 5.3 4.00.3
14.0 to 14.4% 0.4 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.70.0
14.5 to 14.9% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.10.0
>15.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.00.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0