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1999 Q2

Inflation forecasts Core inflation forecasts Real GDP growth forecasts Unemployment rate forecasts

HICP Inflation forecasts

Inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area all items Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), as published by Eurostat

1999 Q2 inflation forecasts
  1999 2000 Mar. 2000 Mar. 2001
Mean point estimate 1.1 1.5 1.5 1.7
Standard deviation 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Number of replies 61 61 56 56
Probability distributions 1999 2000 Mar. 2000 Mar. 2001
<0.0% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
0.0-0.4% 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.1
0.5-0.9% 24.4 12.0 12.7 8.1
1.0-1.4% 58.1 37.8 40.4 29.5
1.5-1.9% 13.5 36.6 34.9 38.6
2.0-2.4% 1.3 10.0 8.3 16.9
2.5-2.9% 0.2 1.4 1.4 3.1
3.0-3.4% 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.9
>3.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Core HICP inflation forecasts

Core inflation is defined as the year on year percentage change in the euro area HICP special aggregate ‘all items excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco’, as published by Eurostat.

Real GDP growth forecasts

Real GDP growth is defined as year on year percentage change of real GDP (i.e. in volumes) in the euro area , according to the standardised European System of national and regional Accounts 2010 definition, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q2 real GDP growth forecasts
  1999 2000 1999 Q4 2000 Q4
Mean point estimate 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.5
Standard deviation 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3
Number of replies 61 61 55 55
Probability distributions 1999 2000 1999 Q4 2000 Q4
<0.0% 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2
0.0-0.4% 0.8 0.4 0.7 0.4
0.5-0.9% 1.8 0.9 1.4 1.0
1.0-1.4% 9.0 4.7 6.3 3.7
1.5-1.9% 41.0 16.3 25.1 12.8
2.0-2.4% 39.1 34.6 38.1 31.3
2.5-2.9% 6.6 34.5 21.3 37.9
3.0-3.4% 1.2 6.6 5.5 10.0
3.5-3.9% 0.2 1.3 1.0 2.1
>4.0% 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.6
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Unemployment rate forecasts

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed, according to the ILO's definition, as a percentage of the labour force, as published by Eurostat.

1999 Q2 unemployment rate forecasts
  1999 2000 Feb. 2000 Feb. 2001
Mean point estimate 10.5 10.2 10.3 9.9
Standard deviation 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5
Number of replies 61 61 55 54
Probability distributions 1999 2000 Feb. 2000 Feb. 2001
<9.0% 0.0 0.8 0.2 2.6
9.0-9.4% 0.6 5.1 2.6 11.5
9.5-9.9% 7.3 22.7 16.8 31.7
10.0-10.4% 36.3 44.5 43.0 31.9
10.5-10.9% 44.4 20.0 28.3 15.2
11.0-11.4% 9.4 4.3 6.8 4.6
11.5-11.9% 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.7
>12.0% 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0