Nije dostupno na hrvatskom jeziku.
Paola Di Casola
International & European Relations
- Division
External Developments
- Current Position
-
Senior Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics,International Economics
- Education
- 2010-2015
Ph.D in Economics, Stockholm School of Economics.
- 2008-2009
MSc in Economics and Econometrics (with Distinction), University of Southampton.
- 2006-2008
Laurea Specialistica (MSc) in Statistical Sciences (with Distinction), Universita' La Sapienza di Roma.
- 2003-2006
Laurea Triennale (Bsc) in Statistical Sciences (with Distinction), Universita' La Sapienza di Roma.
- Professional experience
- 2021-
Senior Economist, ECB
- 2018-2021
Senior Economist, Monetary Policy Department, Sveriges Riksbank
- 2015-2018
Economist, Monetary Policy Department, Sveriges Riksbank
- 2010
Internship at Bank of Italy.
- 2009-2010
Internship at ECB.
- Awards
- 2015
Peter Högfeldt Award for Outstanding PhD Thesis in Economics, Stockholm School of Economics
- Teaching experience
- 2011-2014
Teaching assistant for Microeconomics, Macroeconomics, Economics of Organization.
- 19 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 365Details
- Abstract
- In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade integration has largely withstood recent disruptions and the rise of inward-looking policies, selective decoupling between few trading partners (United States vis-à-vis China, western economies vis-à-vis Russia) and for specific products (such as advanced technologies) is occurring. Survey data show that, although European firms are reorganising supply chains critical foreign dependencies persist. A firm-level stress test reveals that sudden disruptions in the supply of critical inputs from high-risk countries would lead to significant, albeit very heterogeneous, economic losses across firms, regions and sectors. Addressing foreign dependencies with broad-based protectionism policies, however, is self-defeating. In an extreme counterfactual scenario involving prohibitive and across-the-board trade barriers between geopolitical blocs, global GDP could decline by up to 9% coupled with an increase in global inflation of 4 percentage points in the first year, with the impact persisting for at least five years. It is conceivable that trade fragmentation will unravel over the course of a number of years, with supply disruptions becoming more frequent and severe than in the past. If this process should ultimately lead to a less interconnected global economy, countries might suffer from increased volatility and price pressures, as shocks cannot be easily diversified away through trade. [...]
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F52 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 23 September 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2024Details
- Abstract
- Labour productivity growth in the euro area remains significantly below its pre-pandemic levels, whereas in the United States it is largely in line with the pre-pandemic trend. The slower growth in euro area labour productivity has been broadly based across sectors. This discrepancy in productivity growth between the two regions partly stems from the higher procyclicality of labour productivity in the euro area. However, structural factors are also likely to play a significant role in explaining productivity differences between the two regions and are rooted in weak contributions from capital accumulation and innovation in the euro area. These factors have arguably been present since well before the pandemic.
- JEL Code
- E24 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
- 8 November 2023
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2868Details
- Abstract
- We analyse the drivers of Bitcoin transactions against 44 fiat currencies in the largest peer-to-peer crypto exchanges. Momentum and volatility in the cryptoasset market, as well as volatility and liquidity in global financial markets do matter for Bitcoin trading. There is suggestive evidence of a global crypto cycle driven by speculative motives. However, in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), Bitcoin seems to offer also transactional benefits, since trading increases when the value of the domestic currency is unstable. Proxies of banking depth and digitalisation are negatively correlated with the currency loadings on the global factor, indicating that crypto-assets may offer a speculative alternative to traditional finance when this is not available, especially in EMDEs where the share of younger risk-prone population is higher. Our results clearly point to potential financial stability risks from cryptoisation in EMDEs with low levels of financial development and unstable fiat currencies.
- JEL Code
- E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
F24 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→Remittances
F32 : International Economics→International Finance→Current Account Adjustment, Short-Term Capital Movements
F38 : International Economics→International Finance→International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
- 10 August 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box uses structural BVAR models applied to global macroeconomic data to provide evidence that monetary policy is transmitted more strongly to consumption in countries with higher shares of homeowners with mortgages, higher levels of household debt and higher shares of adjustable-rate mortgages, although the evidence for the latter is weaker. Since the previous hiking cycle, the shares of homeowners with mortgages and the levels of household debt have risen in the euro area, with countries increasingly resembling each other in this regard. This means that aggregate monetary policy transmission through the housing channel may, if anything, be stronger and more even across euro area countries in the current cycle than in past hiking cycles.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
- 21 June 2023
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - SPECIAL FEATUREThe international role of the euro 2023Details
- JEL Code
- :
- 14 June 2022
- THE INTERNATIONAL ROLE OF THE EURO - BOXThe international role of the euro 2022
- 25 May 2022
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 1, 2022Details
- Abstract
- House prices increased substantially in advanced economies during the pandemic, fuelling concerns about possible price reversals and their implications for financial stability. Shifts in housing preferences, possibly reflecting a desire for more space coupled with less need for commuting due to teleworking modalities, and low interest rates have been important drivers of such recent strong house price growth across advanced economies. In the current low interest rate environment, increased sensitivity of house price growth to changes in real interest rates makes substantial house price reversals more likely. An abrupt repricing in the housing market – if the demand for housing were to go into reverse, for example, with a return to pre-pandemic work modalities, or real interest rates were to rise significantly – could produce spillovers to the wider financial system and economy.
- JEL Code
- E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R30 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→General
- 2022
- Journal of International Money and Finance