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Michal Andrle
- 10 May 2017
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 2058Details
- Abstract
- What are the drivers of business cycle fluctuations? And how many are there? By documenting strong and predictable co-movement of real variables during the business cycle in a sample of advanced economies, we argue that most business cycle fluctuations are driven by one major factor. The positive co-movement of real output and inflation convincingly argues for a demand story. This feature—robust across time and space—provides a simple smell test for structural macroeconomic models. We propose a simple statistic that can compare data and models. Based on this statistic, we show that the recent vintage of structural economic models has difficulties replicating the stylized facts we document.
- JEL Code
- C10 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→General
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 23 August 2010
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 1235Details
- Abstract
- This paper comments on selected aspects of identification issues of DSGE models. It suggests the singular value decomposition (SVD) as a useful tool for detecting local weak and non-identification. This decomposition is useful for checking rank conditions of identification, identification strength, and it also offers parameter space ‘identification patterns’. With respect to other methods of identification the singular value decomposition is particularly easy to apply and offers an intuitive interpretation. We suggest a simple algorithm for analyzing identification and an algorithm for finding a set of the most identifiable set of parameters. We also demonstrate that the use of bivariate and multiple correlation coefficients of parameters provides only limited check of identification problems.
- JEL Code
- F31 : International Economics→International Finance→Foreign Exchange
F41 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance→Open Economy Macroeconomics