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PUBLICATION
19 December 2024
Payment attitudes of euro area consumers
What was the most common way to pay in the euro area in 2024? What do consumers value most about different payment methods? We looked at these and other questions in our latest study on how people like to pay in the euro area.
Read more
SPEECH
16 December 2024
Monetary policy in the euro area
We have seen important changes to the path of inflation, the shocks driving inflation and the risks to inflation, says President Christine Lagarde in a speech in Vilnius. That is why we have changed our monetary policy stance and future orientation.
Read President Lagarde’s speech
PODCAST
20 December 2024
Tariffs, tensions and tackling inflation
What impact do global events have on the European economy? And how has the ECB’s monetary policy shifted recently? As 2024 comes to an end, our host Paul Gordon discusses these questions and more with Chief Economist Philip R. Lane.
Listen to The ECB Podcast- 19 December 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 19 December 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 19 December 2024
- PAGEDetails
- Summary
- Results of a study on the payment attitudes of consumers in the euro area
- 19 December 2024
- BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (MONTHLY)
- 18 December 2024
- PRESS RELEASE
- 18 December 2024
- PRESS RELEASERelated
- 18 December 2024
- PAGE
- 18 December 2024
- Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, MNI Webcast
- 16 December 2024
- Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEPR Paris Symposium 2024 hosted by the Banque de FranceAnnexes
- 16 December 2024
- 16 December 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Bank of Lithuania’s Annual Economics Conference on “Pillars of Resilience Amid Global Geopolitical Shifts”, on the occasion of the 10th anniversary of euro introduction, Vilnius, Lithuania
- 12 December 2024
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 12 December 2024EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +Related
- 12 December 2024
- 12 December 2024
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (23) +
- 4 December 2024
- Speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European ParliamentAnnexes
- 4 December 2024
- 4 December 2024
- 20 December 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Wouter van Bergen and Martin Visser
- 4 December 2024
- Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB to The Economist
- 28 November 2024
- Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula Khalaf, Patrick Jenkins and Olaf Storbeck on 25 November 2024
- 27 November 2024
- Interview with Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by Mark Schrörs and Alexander Weber on 25 November 2024
- 26 November 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Petri Sajari
- 18 December 2024
- The growth of negotiated wages is expected to ease in 2025. This is the information emerging from the ECB wage tracker, which we will publish on a regular basis from now on. The ECB Blog explains the tool and how it can help monitor wage pressures in the euro area.
- 16 December 2024
- Though overall inflation has come down a lot, domestic inflation remains stubbornly high. This is typical for monetary policy tightening cycles. To understand why, The ECB Blog looks at how monetary policy is transmitted to wages, profits and productivity.Details
- JEL Code
- E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E42 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Monetary Systems, Standards, Regimes, Government and the Monetary System, Payment Systems
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 3 December 2024
- At the height of the financial crisis Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus needed help. The international assistance came under the condition of economic adjustment aiming to restore financial stability, debt sustainability and growth. How did the four countries recover from their crises?
- 28 November 2024
- The European Commission is seeking the views of stakeholders on policies to guard against the build-up of systemic risk in the financial sector beyond banks. This ECB Blog post describes the pillars of a macroprudential approach for the so-called non-bank financial sector and explains the need to further develop the policy framework.Details
- JEL Code
- G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 19 November 2024
- Meeting the EU’s climate neutrality targets calls for deep structural changes and significant private funding, requiring a healthy financial system. That’s why we’ve tested how resilient banks, investment funds and insurers are to stresses arising during the green transition. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos explains the findings.Related
- 19 November 2024
- 19 November 2024
- 20 December 2024
- GOVERNING COUNCIL STATEMENT
- 19 December 2024
- STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)Annexes
- 19 December 2024
- STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
- 19 December 2024
- STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
- 19 December 2024
- STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
- 19 December 2024
- STUDY ON THE PAYMENT ATTITUDES OF CONSUMERS IN THE EURO AREA (SPACE)
- 19 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 365Details
- Abstract
- In light of recent global economic and geopolitical shocks threatening trade openness, this report aims to shed light on geoeconomic fragmentation and develops a rich set of new tools to assess its economic effects and implications for central banks. The report shows that, although global trade integration has largely withstood recent disruptions and the rise of inward-looking policies, selective decoupling between few trading partners (United States vis-à-vis China, western economies vis-à-vis Russia) and for specific products (such as advanced technologies) is occurring. Survey data show that, although European firms are reorganising supply chains critical foreign dependencies persist. A firm-level stress test reveals that sudden disruptions in the supply of critical inputs from high-risk countries would lead to significant, albeit very heterogeneous, economic losses across firms, regions and sectors. Addressing foreign dependencies with broad-based protectionism policies, however, is self-defeating. In an extreme counterfactual scenario involving prohibitive and across-the-board trade barriers between geopolitical blocs, global GDP could decline by up to 9% coupled with an increase in global inflation of 4 percentage points in the first year, with the impact persisting for at least five years. It is conceivable that trade fragmentation will unravel over the course of a number of years, with supply disruptions becoming more frequent and severe than in the past. If this process should ultimately lead to a less interconnected global economy, countries might suffer from increased volatility and price pressures, as shocks cannot be easily diversified away through trade. [...]
- JEL Code
- F13 : International Economics→Trade→Trade Policy, International Trade Organizations
F14 : International Economics→Trade→Empirical Studies of Trade
F51 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→International Conflicts, Negotiations, Sanctions
F52 : International Economics→International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy→National Security, Economic Nationalism
F61 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Microeconomic Impacts
F62 : International Economics→Economic Impacts of Globalization→Macroeconomic Impacts
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
- 18 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3007Details
- Abstract
- We assess Euro Area financial integration correcting for the role of “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. The OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as both hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign firms. We provide new estimates of Euro Area countries’ bilateral portfolio investments which look through both roles, attributing the wealth held via investment funds to the underlying holders and linking securities issuance to the ultimate parent firms. Our new estimates show that the Euro Area is less financially integrated than it appears, both within the currency union and vis-à-vis the rest of the world. While official data suggests a sharp decline in portfolio home bias for Euro Area countries relative to other developed economies following the introduction of the euro, we demonstrate that this pattern only remains true for bond portfolios, while it is artificially generated by OOFC activities for equity portfolios. Further, using new administrative evidence on the identity of non-Euro Area investors in OOFC funds, we document that the bulk of the positions constituting missing wealth in international financial accounts are now accounted for by United Kingdom counterparts.
- JEL Code
- F3 : International Economics→International Finance
F4 : International Economics→Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
G2 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
H26 : Public Economics→Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue→Tax Evasion
- 18 December 2024
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 17 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3006Details
- Abstract
- Trust in the central bank is an essential ingredient for a successful conduct of monetary policy. However, for many central banks trust has recently declined, for instance in the wake of the post-pandemic inflation surge, due to large errors in central banks’ inflation forecasts, or given problems when exiting from forward guidance. The rapid, substantial and persistent erosion of trust makes it clear that trust needs to be earned continuously. This paper reviews why trust is important, what determines it and how central banks can enhance it. It also argues that it is important for central banks to improve the measurement and monitoring of trust. It ends by highlighting some future challenges for maintaining trust.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G53 : Financial Economics
- 16 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3005Details
- Abstract
- Adaptation needs are vast, rising fast and difficult to determine in their entirety, especially with uncertain adverse scenarios due to climate inertia and implementation lags. Adaptation is hindered by a lack of a unified understanding of what it necessitates; the challenge in pointing out its costs, benefits, and residual risks; insufficiently prescriptive policy and legal frameworks; and the growing financing gap. Conversely, we now have better granular climate data to study the impacts of climate hazards and forecast climate risks; there is awareness that adaptation choices must be dynamic and reactive; and there is an increasing pool of case studies from which to learn. There is evidence that efficient adaptation investments can yield “triple-dividends” helping to close the financing gap. There is a need to absorb and smooth the impacts of rising extreme climate events. Innovative financial instruments, such as catastrophe bonds and climate bonds, might support challenged insurance coverages.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
- 16 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 364Details
- Abstract
- This paper looks back on the 25-year history of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Since its launch in the first quarter of 1999, it has served as an important input for policymaking and analysis, especially over the past five years, where the euro area has, following a period of low inflation, navigated a global pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unprecedented surge in inflation. The survey has evolved over time and provides not only a long time series of economic expectations and forecasts, but also valuable insights on key topical issues and on economic risks and uncertainties. We show that, for each of the three main macroeconomic variables forecast – HICP inflation, real GDP growth and the unemployment rate – the track record of the ECB SPF in forecasting has been broadly comparable to that of the Eurosystem. In addition, its combination of quantitative point forecasts and probability distributions with qualitative explanations has provided useful input for macroeconomic analysis. Beyond analyses of the forecasts for the main macroeconomic variables, there are also two further sections that examine the technical assumptions (oil prices, policy rates, exchange rates and wages) underlying SPF expectations and an analysis and assessment of measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Technical assumptions are shown to account for the lion’s share of the variance in the inflation forecast errors, while uncertainty is shown to have increased considerably relative to that which prevailed during the early years of the SPF (1999-2008). Looking ahead, the SPF – with its long track record, its large and broad panel (spanning both financial and non-financial forecasters) and committed panellists – will undoubtedly continue to provide timely and useful insights for the ECB’s policymakers, macroeconomic experts, economic researchers and the wider public.
- JEL Code
- D84 : Microeconomics→Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty→Expectations, Speculations
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
- 16 December 2024
- SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS - AGGREGATE RESULTS
- 16 December 2024
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 126Details
- Abstract
- The “doom loop” or “sovereign-bank nexus” has been a key factor in the European debt crisis, driven by feedback between fiscal sustainability risks and financial stability. This Research Bulletin revisits the doom loop, examining strategic default incentives and the unintended effects of policy interventions. While limiting banks’ exposure to sovereign debt can break the doom loop, it may increase default risks by weakening governments’ repayment incentives. Similarly, measures like the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) or European Safe Bonds (ESBies) can mitigate the doom loop but might introduce new vulnerabilities, requiring precise calibration. Counterintuitively, allowing banks to increase sovereign bond holdings during crises may stabilise markets by reducing default incentives. These findings underscore the complex trade-offs and the need for nuanced policy design at both national and monetary union levels.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
- 13 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 13 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 13 December 2024
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 13 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3004Details
- Abstract
- We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting models and improving the policy analysis. For model creation, the toolbox automatizes testing input variables, assessing model accuracy, and checking robustness to the Covid period. The toolbox is organized along a structured three-step approach: variable pre-selection, model selection, and Covid robustness. Non-specialists can easily follow these steps to develop high-performing models, while experts can leverage the automated tests and analyses. For regular policy use, the toolbox generates a large range of outputs to aid conjunctural analysis like news decomposition, confidence bands, alternative forecasts, and heatmaps. These multiple outputs aim at opening the "black box" often associated with nowcasts and at gauging the reliability of real-time predictions. We showcase the toolbox features to create a nowcasting model for global GDP growth. Overall, the toolbox aims at facilitating creation, evaluation, and deployment of nowcasting models. Code and templates are available on GitHub: https://github.com/baptiste-meunier/Nowcasting_toolbox.
- JEL Code
- C22 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Single Equation Models, Single Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
C51 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Construction and Estimation
C52 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
C55 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Modeling with Large Data Sets?
- 13 December 2024
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 363Details
- Abstract
- Supervisory data are typically not conceived for statistical purposes or considered “official statistics”, but they are disclosed to the public, either directly by the supervised institutions or indirectly by the competent authorities. This disclosure is required under Pillar 3 of the Basel framework on banking supervision. The aim of the framework is to promote market discipline, whereby market participants monitor the risks and financial positions of banks and take action to guide, limit and price their risk-taking to safeguard financial stability. The disclosure of supervisory data is therefore a public good. In addition, supervisory data can be a reliable source for official statistics such as financial accounts. On the other hand, the nature of supervisory data differs from that of standard official statistics and its quality is subject to a robust assessment framework, with distinct particularities. The aim of this paper is to analyse the EU supervisory reporting framework from an institutional and policy perspective, in view of its potential and desirable evolution over time, including its possible integration with the statistical framework. The paper is split into three main parts. First, it describes the historical and current EU institutional settings, including the role of the European Banking Authority (EBA) reporting framework and the role of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM), focusing on the data quality assessment framework and the publication of supervisory statistics. […]
- JEL Code
- C81 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data, Data Access
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
G38 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Government Policy and Regulation
- 13 December 2024
- LEGAL CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
- 12 December 2024
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREAEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (21) +Annexes
- 12 December 2024
- MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
- 4 December 2024
- INTEGRATED REPORTING FRAMEWORK DOCUMENT
- 3 December 2024
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3003Details
- Abstract
- We document that about 33% of the core inflation basket in the euro area is sensitive to monetary policy shocks. We assess potential theoretical mechanisms driving the sensitivity. Our results suggest that items of a discretionary nature, as reflected in a higher share in the consumption baskets of richer households, and those with larger role of credit in financing their purchase, tend to be more sensitive.Non-sensitive items are more frequently subject to administered prices and include non-discretionary items such as rents and medical services. Energy intensity does not seem to drive our results and the sensitive items are not dominated by durable goods, but are relatively evenly split between goods and services. Estimations over different samples show that the impact of monetary policy shocks on sensitive core inflation has become larger recently.
- JEL Code
- E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
- 3 December 2024
- CONSULTATION RESPONSE
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 3,40 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 3,15 % |
| Deposit facility | 3,00 % |
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