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Civil war declaration: On April 14th and 15th, 2012 Federal Republic of Germany "_urkenstaats"s parliament, Deutscher Bundestag, received a antifiscal written civil war declaration by Federal Republic of Germany "Rechtsstaat"s electronic resistance for human rights even though the "Widerstandsfall" according to article 20 paragraph 4 of the constitution, the "Grundgesetz", had been already declared in the years 2001-03. more
PRESS RELEASE
31 January 2025
Motifs shortlisted for future banknotes
Following feedback from public surveys and groups of experts, our Governing Council has selected possible motifs based on the two chosen themes, “European culture” and “Rivers and birds”. A design contest launched later this year will help us select final designs in 2026.
Read the press release
PUBLICATION
31 January 2025
ECB/ESRB macroprudential policy report
Building up capital buffers for release in times of stress is key for financial stability. The ECB and ESRB have published a joint report on the experience of EEA countries that have used the countercyclical capital buffer to build resilience early in the cycle.
Press release
EVENT
28 January 2025
International Holocaust Remembrance Day
On International Holocaust Remembrance Day, we remembered the millions of lives lost in the Holocaust. The ECB’s Grossmarkthalle site is a sobering reminder of this history. This year and every year, we must stay vigilant and unite in the face of hate and antisemitism.
- 30 January 2025
- Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main, 30 January 2025EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +Related
- 30 January 2025
- 30 January 2025
- EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (22) +
- 27 January 2025
- Lamfalussy Lecture by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, at the Lamfalussy Lectures Conference organised by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, pre-recorded in Frankfurt am Main on 15 January 2025
- 17 January 2025
- Slides by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Crypto Asset Lab conference organised by the University of Milano-Bicocca
- 15 January 2025
- Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 15th edition of Spain Investors Day
- 14 January 2025
- Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at HKIMR-ECB-BOFIT Joint Conference “Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy” in Hong Kong
- 17 January 2025
- Interview with Frank Elderson, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, conducted by Arend Clahsen and Han Dirk Hekking
- 13 January 2025
- Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by András Szigetvari
- 9 January 2025
- Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Federico Fubini
- 20 December 2024
- Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Wouter van Bergen and Martin Visser
- 4 December 2024
- Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB to The Economist
- 1 February 2025
- Remaining competitive is fundamental for Europe’s future. We need faster economic growth and higher productivity to protect the quality of life for Europeans – from their jobs and incomes to their security and welfare.
- 20 January 2025
- Stress tests are of crucial importance to assess banks’ resilience under adverse economic conditions. In previous stress tests, however, some banks submitted overly optimistic projections. Despite thorough quality assurance by supervisors, this behaviour makes it more likely that the risks some banks face are underestimated. To address this, we are now taking a closer look at insufficiently prudent projection submissions. In line with our supervisory focus on banks’ risk data aggregation and reporting capabilities, we are also looking more closely at poor data quality issues in stress tests.Details
- JEL Code
- G20 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→General
- 15 January 2025
- Central banks project future developments based on past data patterns and a set of assumptions. Crises can change economic structures, complicating this forecasting. The ECB Blog explains how scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses address the new uncertainty.Details
- JEL Code
- E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
- 10 January 2025
- Investments in R&D typically foster productivity growth. But the funding source matters. The ECB Blog shows that publicly funded R&D complements private investments and has greater effects on productivity growth because of its larger spillovers.Details
- JEL Code
- O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
- 8 January 2025
- The rise of working-from-home during the pandemic dramatically changed the way we organise work. And teleworking is transforming more than just our professional lives: The ECB Blog looks at how this shift is affecting the housing market and inequality.Details
- JEL Code
- R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→General
- 31 January 2025
- LETTERS TO MEPS
- 31 January 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3015Details
- Abstract
- This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks.
- JEL Code
- C43 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics→Index Numbers and Aggregation
C82 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology, Computer Programs→Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data, Data Access
E66 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General Outlook and Conditions
R32 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis
R41 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Transportation Economics→Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise
- 31 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +EnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +Related
- 31 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASEEnglishOTHER LANGUAGES (17) +
- 31 January 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1,Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 82 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 6 and 14 January 2025, business momentum remained subdued at the turn of the year as confidence in the manufacturing sector remained low, while services activity was more resilient. Price growth was moderate but had picked up slightly, mainly on account of rising energy and transport prices. Wage growth was expected to slow further both this year and next.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 31 January 2025
- SURVEY OF PROFESSIONAL FORECASTERSAnnexes
- 31 January 2025
- ANNEX
- 29 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 28 January 2025
- LEGAL ACT
- 28 January 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEYAnnexes
- 28 January 2025
- EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY - ANNEX
Related- 28 January 2025
- PRESS RELEASE
- 27 January 2025
- SURVEY ON THE ACCESS TO FINANCE OF ENTERPRISES IN THE EURO AREAAnnexes
- 27 January 2025
- SAFE QUESTIONNAIRE
- 23 January 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3014Details
- Abstract
- This paper investigates the growth impact of the EU’s Structural, Cohesion and Pre-accession Funds. We look at a large sample of 27 EU countries and the UK, over a period of 1989 and 2020, essentially covering the full history of these funds. We show that the growth effect of the funds is conditional on institutional quality: the funds contribute to economic growth only in countries with strong institutions: low corruption, strong rule of law, effective governments, and strong regulatory quality.Our research have important messages for the expected economic impact of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) and the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). On the one hand, our findings highlight the risk that countries with weaker institutions – that also receive more funds - may use such funds less efficiently or wisely. On the other hand, countries that receive more RRF funds are also expected to introduce more structural reforms, some of which have the potential to improve institutional quality and thereby improve the effectiveness of the RRF and EU funds in general.
- JEL Code
- O11 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Development→Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O43 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Institutions and Growth
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
- 20 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATIONAnnexes
- 20 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
- 20 January 2025
- OTHER PUBLICATION
Related - 16 January 2025
- RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 127Details
- Abstract
- Housing affordability is at the centre of the political debate in many euro area countries. With steadily increasing rents and house prices still high relative to historical standards, many young households, particularly in large cities, are devoting an ever larger share of their income to housing expenses, and are finding it increasingly hard to access their desired size and quality of housing. At the same time, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many authorities tightened credit conditions by introducing limits to mortgage debt for banks or for borrowers themselves (borrower-based measures). These interventions were successful in improving financial stability, which was their key objective. In this article we point to an overlooked potential downside of these policies and other restrictive shocks to credit: limiting access to mortgage credit and, therefore, to homeownership, can spill over into the rental market, pushing up rents and having a negative welfare impact on some households – particularly the young and those on low incomes.
- JEL Code
- D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G51 : Financial Economics
- 15 January 2025
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3013Details
- Abstract
- Flexibility has progressively become a distinctive feature of the implementation of the Eurosystem’s asset purchases. In its many manifestations, flexibility has also been used by asset managers in the daily selection of sovereign bonds to limit the impact of asset purchases on repo market specialness. This study shows that, since the inception of the Public Sector Purchase Programme, flexible purchases of bonds greatly mitigated the Eurosystem’s footprint on the repo market.
- JEL Code
- E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- This box studies how euro area investment funds use repurchase agreements and margin lending to build up leverage. Hedge funds are more likely to be leveraged in non-euro currencies sourced from foreign banks. On average, financial leverage is relatively low and diversified, though pockets of risk and strong connections with the banking sector warrant continued monitoring.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- Mandating the use of central clearing of government bond repos is one way to mitigate financial stability risks from the rise of the non-bank sector in these markets. By imposing stricter risk management practices, it can limit the build-up of excessive NBFI leverage ex ante and support intermediation capacity. However, its impact on market functioning and liquidity requires careful assessment.
- JEL Code
- G18, G23, G28 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- The aim of this article is to assess the scale and systemic nature of counterparty credit risk (CCR) stemming from banks’ derivatives activities and securities financing transactions. Using supervisory data, along with data collected from the EU-wide stress test carried out by the European Banking Authority in 2023, the article analyses the distribution of CCR across banks. It focuses on the concentration of risk within specific bank business models and products, and on links between the banking and NBFI sectors. It also examines not only the role of collateral in risk mitigation but also its potential negative impact on systemic risk. Exposures to CCR are concentrated in a group of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) and investment banks, which play a vital intermediation role in European financial markets. Banks’s counterparties mainly operate in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector. To quantify systemic risk in a network of CCR exposures, we use stress test techniques to see how widely hypothetical defaults among more vulnerable NBFI counterparties may spread across the banking system. In such an event, banks under European banking supervision may face considerable losses.
- JEL Code
- G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- We use transaction-level data on the euro area repo market to assess the impact of the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) recommended minimum haircut framework on leverage in non-bank financial institutions. We find that it would affect larger and more leveraged entities the most, indicating its capability to make a meaningful contribution to addressing risks from leverage in non-bank financial institutions.
- JEL Code
- G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- Synthetic leverage is a key source of vulnerability for the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector. Yet there is lack of consensus on how to measure it. In this article, we propose a novel methodological framework to measure synthetic leverage and apply it to interest rate swaps using data gathered under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). Our contribution is threefold. First, compared with notional-based measures of synthetic leverage, our formula is sensitive to changes in the underlying risk factor and thus reflects different degrees of resilience to interest rate shocks. Second, thanks to its duration-based approach, our methodology is particularly suitable as a policy tool for scenario analysis. Finally, by providing an estimate of the leverage risk that an institution faces through its derivatives positions, our framework makes it possible to investigate the potential implications for an NBFI entity’s overall exposure to liquidity and solvency risk.
- JEL Code
- G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- This article develops a framework for assessing risks and formulating policies for leveraged alternative investment funds by integrating entity-level information for investment funds with transaction-level data on derivatives and repurchase agreements. Combining both types of data allows us to better understand the use of leverage in alternative investment funds and assess its implications for financial stability. Using a comprehensive set of risk metrics, our analysis identifies hedge funds and liability-driven investment (LDI) funds as the most vulnerable to leverage-related risks. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework for risk assessment by analysing the sensitivity of leveraged funds to interest rate shocks. We find that LDI funds may face significant liquidity needs and mark-to-market losses. Hedge funds appear to be more resilient to this type of shock, but depending on their investment strategy, they could be sensitive to other risk factors. Our framework allows us to flexibly analyse other risk scenarios and to evaluate regulatory measures in terms of both their effectiveness and their precision in addressing potential vulnerabilities arising from leverage.
- JEL Code
- G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
- 15 January 2025
- MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26Details
- Abstract
- Leverage in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector can be a source of systemic risk and amplify stress in the wider financial system. Policymakers are currently considering ways to address NBFI leverage risks, with the focus on containing the build-up of such risks ex ante. To achieve this, authorities need a broad toolkit that allows them first to identify leverage risks and then to address them. Taking advantage of recent improvements in data availability, this edition of the Macroprudential Bulletin explores novel approaches to identifying risks and designing policies. In doing so, it contributes to the wider ongoing debate on addressing risks from NBFI leverage.
- JEL Code
- G11, G15, G23 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
Interest rates
| Marginal lending facility | 3,15 % |
| Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) | 2,90 % |
| Deposit facility | 2,75 % |
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