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Dorian Henricot
Monetary Policy
- Division
Monetary Analysis
- Current Position
-
Senior Economist
- Fields of interest
-
Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics,Financial Economics
- Education
- 2018-2023
PhD in Economics, Sciences Po Paris
- 2016-2017
Master in Economics, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics
- 2009-2013
Master in Engineering, Ecole Polytechnique
- Professional experience
- 2022-
Economist, European Central Bank
- 2017-2021
Economist, Banque de France
- 2013-2015
Consultant, McKinsey & Co
- 12 November 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2025Details
- Abstract
- Monetary policy affects household credit heterogeneously through multiple channels. On the supply side, monetary policy tightening is typically thought to have a more adverse effect on lower-income households. The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey supports this assumption, with lower-income households reporting tighter constraints on credit access and higher consumer loan rejection rates than households with higher incomes during the recent tightening period. That said, on the demand side, survey responses indicate that lower-income households did not reduce their mortgage loan applications, unlike higher-income households, and in fact even increased their consumer loan applications, during this tightening phase. As a result of these offsetting effects, lower-income households, unlike higher-income ones, did not report a decline in overall loan take-up at a time when borrowing conditions were less favourable. Households in lower-income brackets also increased their share of adjustable-rate mortgage loans during this period.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G51 : Financial Economics
- 18 June 2025
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2025Details
- Abstract
- This article analyses the transmission of monetary policy to consumption via its impact on mortgage payments. Simulations using the current distribution of loans across households show that, despite rate cuts, a substantial part of past tightening is still in the pipeline. The average interest rate on outstanding mortgages is expected to continue to increase, translating into a persistent drag on the expected consumption recovery. Lower-income households were affected earlier in the cycle and will be the most affected by 2030 in cumulative terms, disproportionately weighing on consumption due to their higher marginal propensities to consume. The estimates suggest that up to 35% of the overall impact on consumption via this mortgage cash flow channel has not materialised yet. This delayed drag distinguishes the current easing cycle from previous ones. It reflects (i) the fact that the latest hiking cycle started after a long period of low rates, (ii) the less complete pass-through of hikes due to the higher share of fixed-rate mortgages and the pace and magnitude of the tightening cycle, and (iii) the outlook for the current interest rate cycle, which is expected to leave interest rates on new loans at higher levels than before 2021.
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G51 : Financial Economics
- 28 May 2025
- THE ECB BLOGDetails
- JEL Code
- E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 2023
- Regional Science and Urban Economics
- 2023
- Journal of Banking & Finance