Inflation: Drivers and Dynamics 2024 Conference

Registration and breakfast

Welcome

Edward S. Knotek II, Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Opening Remarks

Beth M. Hammack, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

The Pass-Through of Inflation Expectations into Prices and Wages: Evidence from an RCT Survey

• Michael Lamla*, Universität Duisburg-Essen
• Klaus Abberger, ETH (Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule) Zürich
• Anne Kathrin Funk, Swiss National Bank
• Sarah Lein, Universität Basel
• Stefanie Siegrist, ETH Zürich

Discussant: Erwan Gautier, Banque de France

How Do Households Respond to Expected Inflation? An Investigation of Transmission Mechanisms

• Daniela Puzzello*, Indiana University
• Janet Hua Jiang, Bank of Canada
• Rupal Kamdar, Indiana University, Bloomington
• Kelin Lu, Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Discussant: Josefina Cenzon, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

Break

Anchoring Boundedly Rational Expectation

Stéphane Dupraz* and Magali Marx, both Banque de France

Discussant: Ina Hajdini, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Lunch 

Remarks

Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB

Poster Session 1

Downward Price Rigidities and Inflationary Relative Demand Shocks

• Bart Hobijn*, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
• Dennis Bonam, De Nederlandsche Bank

SAFE to Update Inflation Expectations? New Survey Evidence on Euro Area Firms

• Timo Reinelt*, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
• Ursel Baumann, European Central Bank
• Annalisa Ferrando, European Central Bank
• Dimitris Georgarakos, European Central Bank
• Yuriy Gorodnichenko, University of California, Berkeley

The Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Firms and Macroeconomy

• Xuguang Simon Sheng*, American University
• Carola Binder, Haverford College
• Ezgi O. Ozturk, International Monetary Fund

Households’ Preferences for Inflation and Monetary Policy Tradeoffs

• Damjan Pfajfar*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Fabian Winkler, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Global Inflation Expectations: Evidence of Heterogeneous and Synchronized Mistakes

Karen Smith*, Drew University

The Inflation Attention Threshold and Inflation Surges

Oliver Pfäuti*, University of Texas at Austin

Discussant: Joel Flynn, Yale University

Break

Nonlinearities in the Regional Phillips Curve with Labor Market Tightness

Giulia Gitti*, Collegio Carlo Alberto and University of Turin

Discussant: Juan Herreño, University of California, San Diego

Keynote

Christina Romer, Class of 1957 Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics Emerita, University of

California, Berkeley

Reception

End of day 1

Breakfast

Monetary Policy and Inflation Scares

• Jesper Lindé*, International Monetary Fund
• Christopher Erceg, International Monetary Fund
• Mathias Trabandt, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main

Discussant: Jean-Paul L’Huillier, Brandeis University

The Inflation Accelerator

• Callum Jones*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Andres Blanco, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Corina Boar, New York University
• Virgiliu Midrigan, New York University

Discussant: Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Bank of Canada

Break

Strike the Iron While It’s Hot: Optimal Monetary Policy with (S,s) Pricing

• Ernesto Pastén*, Banco Central de Chile
• Anton Nakov, European Central Bank
• Galo Nuño, Bank of International Settlements and Banco de España
• Peter Karadi, European Central Bank
• Dominik Thaler, Banco de España

Discussant: TBA

Keynote

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, Professor of Economics, Columbia University

Lunch

Poster Session 2

The Unseen Cost of Inflation: Measuring Inflation Uncertainty and Its Economic Repercussions

Sai Ma*, Juan M. Londono and Beth Anne Wilson, all Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Nonlinearities of Monetary Policy across States of Cyclical and Seasonal Price Adjustment

Pascal Seiler*, ETH Zürich

Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations

• Eleonora Granziera*, Norges Bank
• Vegard H. Larsen, BI Norwegian Business School
• Greta Meggiorini, University of Auckland
• Leonardo Melosi, University of Warwick

What Drives Core Inflation? The Role of Supply Shocks

Elena Bobeica*, Marta Bańbura and Catalina Martínez Hernández, all European Central Bank

It's All About Food (and Energy): Sensitive Household Inflation Expectations

• Matthew Naylor*, University of Oxford and Bank of England
• Nikoleta Anesti, Bank of England
• Vania Esady, Bank of England

The Effect of Inflation Uncertainty on Household Spending

• Christoph Herler*, Bank of England
• Johannes Fischer, Deutsche Bundesbank
• Philip Schnattinger, Bank of England

Cyclical Demand Shifts and Cost of Living Inequality

Jake Orchard*, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Discussant: Chiara Osbat, European Central Bank

Break

Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: Evidence from Granular Price Data

Anastasia Allayioti*, Lucyna Górnicka, Sarah Holton and Catalina Martínez Hernández, all European Central Bank

Discussant: Raphael Schoenle, Brandeis University

Sticky Continuing-Tenant Rents

• Lara Loewenstein*, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
• Joshua Gallin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• Hugh Montag, United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Randal Verbrugge, Federal Research Bank of Cleveland

Discussant: Christopher D. Cotton, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

Closing Remarks

Damjan Pfajfar, Vice President, Center for Inflation Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland